Expectation and Experience. A History of Economic Future (Synthesis Project)

这项工作的目的是整合1859年优先方案的结果，并出版两篇研究论文和一本综合专著。我们计划不仅在科学界内传播我们的见解，还将使其他学科和更广泛的公众能够接触到我们的见解。我们通过这个项目追求两个目标：一方面，我们想写一部现代经济预期的历史，特别强调优先计划的新的经验性见解。另一方面，我们希望发展一种创新的预期形成历史理论，这也将与经济学研究相关。这是我们的三个核心问题：1.预期形成的决定因素随着时间的推移发生了什么变化，这些变化对预期理论意味着什么？2.经济预期和历史经验是如何相互关联的？3.在危机期间和外部冲击的影响下，预期是如何变化的？为了回答这些问题，申请者将回到他们自己的研究，整合优先计划其他项目的结果，并收集额外的定量和定性信息。

The aim of this endeavor is to integrate the findings of the Priority Program 1859 and to publish two research papers and one comprehensive monograph. We plan to disseminate our insights not only within the scientific community, but also to make them accessible to other disciplines and to a broader public. We are pursuing two goals with this project: On the one hand, we want to write a history of modern economic expectations, with a special emphasis on the new empirical insights of the Priority Program. On the other hand, we want to develop an innovative historical theory of expectation formation that will also be relevant for research in economics. These are our three central questions: 1. How have the determinants of expectation formation changed over time, and what do these alterations imply for the theory of expectation? 2. How do economic expectations and historical experiences relate to each other? 3. How do expectations change during crises and under the influence of exogenous shocks? To answer these questions the applicants will revert to their own research, integrate the results from the other projects of the Priority Program, and collect additional quantitative and qualitative information.