Study into the Dynamism and Fluctuational Factors of Foreign Exchange Rates

没有任何经济理论能够“系统地”解释日美关系的整个变化。20世纪80年代的汇率，即美元上半年的上涨和美元下半年的快速下跌。虽然有通过计算“有效实际汇率”“在80年代末使汇率恢复到80年代初水平”的实证研究，但没有解释“为什么会这样”。本研究的目的在于合理地解释日美关系。基于汇率变化的两个因素，即国际收支的“真实”变化因素和价格水平的“名义”变化因素，验证了汇率变化的长期动态。这三年来，我在进行文献搜集、相关人士聆听等、数据分析等工作的同时，探索了一个交流体系的真实状态和本质，从历史和理论两个方面都获得了原创性的知识。结果的中心如下所示。在20世纪70年代后半期持续的通货膨胀下，自然，80年代美元对其他货币的汇率应该大幅下跌。然而，由于昂贵的货币政策，外国资本的流入（资本余额中的大黑字）使美元升值，出现了不寻常的强势美元。虽然在广场协议的基础上，各国的协同削减开始了下跌，但出乎意料的是，并没有产生外资的逆流（资本外逃）。由于高利率的释放，外国资本的流出（减少黑字或资本收支的赤字）并不能解释80年代后半期美元的疲软。事实上，问题不在于美国的对外形势，而在于美国的国内条件。虽然几乎所有的国内商品都在通货膨胀的基础上提高了价格，但只有外币是例外的低端产品。“强势美元”意味着“其他货币汇率疲软”。被昂贵的货币政策钉在“货币市场”上的美元，作为低端产品市场像汹涌的巨浪一样被释放，流入“外汇市场”。用美元购买外币会提高作为外币价格的汇率。美元的急剧贬值纯粹是由内部因素造成的。虽然一项政策可以扭曲法律，但它不会被取消。一条法律以不同的形式转移到其他地方。政策毕竟是有客观经济条件的，必须变更和恢复的。少

There is no economic theory which explained "systematically" the whole change of a Japan-U.S. exchange rate in the 1980s, i.e., the dollar rise of the first half and the rapid dollar fall of the second half. Although there is the empirical research of "having restored to the exchange rate to the level of the start of the 80s in the end of the 80s" by calculation of an "effective real exchange rate", "why it became such" is not explained.The purpose of this research was explaining conformably the Japan-U.S. exchange rate change of the 1980s, after verifying the long-term dynamic state of foreign exchange rate change based on two factors of exchange rate change, i.e., the "real" factor of change of international balance of payments and the "nominal" factor of change of price levels. For these three years, while performing collection of reference, listening comprehension by the persons concerned, etc., based on analysis of data etc., I explored the true state and essence of an exchange ra … More te and system, and acquired original knowledge from both sides of history and theory. The center of a result is the following.Under the inflation which continues from the second half of the 1970s, naturally, the exchange rates for the dollar of the 80s should have fallen extensively to other currency. However, it went up by the inflow of foreign capital (large black figures of a capital balance) by dear money policy, and an unusual strong dollar was made to appear. Although it started to fall by the coordinated cut of each country based on the Plaza Accord, unexpectedly, the adverse current of foreign capital (capital flight) was not produced. The outflow of the foreign capital (reduction of the black figures or deficitizing of a capital balance) by release of a high interest rate cannot explain the weak dollar of the second half of the 80s. In fact, the problem is not at a U.S. foreign situation and suited internal conditions. While almost all domestic commodities raised a price under the basis of an inflation, only foreign currency was an exceptional low end product. A "strong dollar" means a "weak other currency rate". The dollar nailed at the "monetary market" by dear money policy flowed into the "exchange market" as a low end product market like raging billows by release. Buying foreign currency with a dollar raises the exchange rate as a price of foreign currency. The sharp fall of the dollar was purely generated according to the internal factor.Although a policy can distort a law, it is not canceled. A law is transferred to somewhere else with the different form. A policy is obliged to an alteration and restoration after all with objective economic conditions. Less