Evolutionary dynamics and adaptive landscape : Testing theory with evolutionary experiment and molecular epidemiological data

毒力病原菌的出现：寄主空间结构可以解释病原菌毒力的巨大变化。毒力进化理论通常预测选择最佳毒力水平，这是由传播和/或恢复之间的权衡决定的。在这里，我们考虑了病原体毒力在获得长期免疫并生活在空间结构种群中的宿主中的进化。我们从理论上证明，由于寄主的局部接触或社会种群结构导致进化动力学中的双稳态，病原菌种群的毒力可能会发生巨大的变化。这一模型为高毒力兔出血症病毒株的快速出现提供了解释。这项研究发表在《科学》杂志上。

Emergence of virulent pathogen : host spatial structure may explain large shift in pathogen virulenceTheory on the evolution of virulence generally predicts selection for an optimal level of virulence determined by trade-offs with transmission and/or recovery. Here we consider the evolution of pathogen virulence in hosts who acquire long-lived immunity and live in a spatially structured population. We show theoretically that large shifts in virulence may occur in pathogen populations as a result of a bistability in evolutionary dynamics caused by the local contact or social population structure of the host. This model provides an explanation for the rapid emergence of the highly virulent strains of rabbit hemorrhagic disease virus. This work is published in Science.