Development newly designed computer simulation of propagation pattern of infectious diseases with independent of traditional mathematical model and its application.

本研究的主要目的是利用蒙地卡罗方法（Monte Carlo method，MCM），发展出一套完整的描述传染病在实际社会中传播模式的方法。需要考虑两个必要的方面：1）与病理方面相关的参数，2）与社会环境和活动相关的参数和情况。传统的数学模型几乎不可能同时处理这两方面的参数。因此，我们的目标是发展一个新的模型，而不是数学模型来描述传染病的传播模式，我们设定了两个目标作为我们的必然目标：1）从计算机游戏到科学工具，2）在计算方法上的巨大改进。有必要对所采用的计算机模拟算法的合理性进行验证。否则，任何计算机模拟将仍然是一个计算机游戏。我们进行了统计分析，以验证和成长的电脑游戏。结果 ...更多信息 在日本数学社会学全国会议（第37、38和39次）以及日美数学社会学联合会议（第3次，2005年6月，札幌）上报告了第一个目标的结果，我们认为它得到了验证。我们的MCM计算机模拟可以处理复杂的参数，从两个方面。我们的新方法是互补的直观传统的数学模型，而不是他们面临着对方。尝试改进计算方法进行了应用MCM的情况下，非常不同的传染病（麻疹和SARS/流感）。最后，一个通用的MCM程序已经出来，这是有效的液滴型传播与考虑各种参数从三个方面的1）病理，2）预防/遏制政策，以及3）社会环境/活动。虽然我们的模拟甚至适用于由多个地区组成的社会，但将考虑更普遍的方法。我们的研究项目开始后，美国引进了几个预算总额为数千万美元的大项目。我们现在正准备慎重而迅速地公布我们的结果。少

The main theme of our research is to develop the complete descriptive method of any pattern of propagation of infectious diseases in the actual society by using Monte Carlo method (MCM). There are two necessary aspects to be considered: 1) parameters related with pathological aspects, 2) parameters and situations related with social environment and activities. It is almost impossible for the conventional mathematical models to handle parameters from both aspects. Therefore, it is our goal to develop a new model other than mathematical models in describing the transmitting pattern of infectious diseases.We set two targets as our unavoidable objectives: 1) from computer game to scientific tool, and 2) drastic improvement in computational methodology. It is necessary to verify the rationality of the algorithm of computer simulation employed. Otherwise, any computer simulation will remain as a computer game. We performed statistical analyses to verify and grow out of computer game.The resu … More lts of the first objective were reported at the national meeting of the Japan Mathematical Sociology (37th, 38th and 39th) as well as at the Japan-US Joint Meeting on Mathematical Sociology (3rd, Jun. 2005, Sapporo), and we believe it was verified. Our MCM computer simulation can handle complicated parameters from the two aspects. And our new method is complementary to the intuitive conventional mathematical models rather than they are confronting each other.Attempts of improving computational methodology were performed by applying MCM to the cases of extremely different contagions (measles and SARS/influenza). Finally, a generalized MCM program has come out, which is effective to the droplet-type transmission with considering various parameters from three aspects of 1) pathology, 2) preventive/containment policy, as well as 3) social environment/activity. Although our simulation is applicable even to the society consisting of several regions, the more generalized methodology will be considered.Just after our research project started, several big projects with total amount of budget of dozens of million dollars were introduced in US. We are now preparing to publish our results deliberatively and rapidly. Less