A Study of the Uncertain Fire Spread Phenomena and an Evaluation Analysis for the Fire Protection Systems of Ship

在船舶和近海结构物发生自发火灾的情况下，必须安全疏散人员，并使船员有足够的时间从事灭火和防止蔓延的活动，因此，可以强调需要设计防火隔板、舱壁和天花板。防火设计可以充分满足越来越多的巨型客船和高速船舶的需求，这些船舶需要比以往任何时候都更轻，而这种设计的性能评估正在这里讨论。本研究建立了一个数学模型，以获得燃烧特性，并对海洋火灾等单体火灾问题的火灾蔓延现象进行了理解。特别是在设计阶段，应仔细分析海火控制因素的模糊性和不确定性之间的相互关系，特别是在参数依赖性较强的情况下。基于模糊集理论的数学模型可以为这些问题提供正确的解决方案。1)考虑了类似海洋火灾的细胞火灾的发生和爆发现象，利用模糊关系确定了决定细胞火灾爆发可能性的阈值曲线。2)然后通过将不确定值引入模糊确定模型来确定火灾蔓延到相邻细胞的条件，以及防止这种危险所需的不燃细胞间壁材料的厚度范围。本文将消防系统评价的分析过程分解为层次模型、影响模型和评价决策模型。为了假设概念要素、定性要素和模糊定量要素，运用模糊理论，通过多准则分析，提出了一种基于这些模型的分析评价方法。消防系统的选择问题将在适当的时候作为所提出方法的一个应用提出。少

In the event of a spontaneous outbreak of fire in ships and offshore structures, it is necessary that the personnel be safety evacuated and the crew get sufficient time to engage in fire extinguishing and spread prevention activities, whereby, the need to design fire preventive partitions, bulkheads and ceilings can be stressed. Fire preventive designs which could sufficiently take care of the requirements of an ever increasing number of giant passenger ships and high speed vessels that need to be lighter than ever, and the performance assessment of such designs are being dealt with here.This study develops a mathematical model to obtain the combustion characteristics and give an understanding of the fire spread phenomena of the problem of cell fires such as marine f ires. Especially, the fuzziness and thd indeterminancy within the governing factors of marine fires are to be carefully analyzed for their inter-relationships at the design stage, especially in the case of strongly paramet … More er dependent phenomena. Mathematical models based upon the theory of fuzzy sets, that can provide a right solution to these problems are presented as follows.1)The phenomena of the incidence and outburst of cell fires like that in the case of marine fires are considered and the corresponding threshold curves that decide the possibility of an outburst are determined, using the fuzzy relationships.2)The conditions under which the fire would spread into the adjacent cells, and the range of thicknesses for the noninflammable intercell wall materials necessary to prevent that danger, are determined then by introducing the indeterminable values into the fuzz determination model.The analytical process of evaluation for fire protection system is broken down here into a hierarchy model, an impact model and an evaluation decision model. In order to postulate the conceptual, qualitative and fuzzy-quantitative elements, an analytical evaluation method based upon these models, is proposed through a multi-criteria analysis using the fuzzy theory. The choosing problem of fire protection systems would be presented as a applications of the proposed method in due course of time. Less