EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ON DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE

在这个项目中，我们使用了新推出的多层次和纵向 来自4000多个国家概率样本的家庭数据 涵盖1968-1981年期间的印度农村家庭，与 补充具体地区的数据，全面检查影响 经济发展和项目干预对人口和 社会变革。我们将多层次、纵向地开发 以确定经济增长和经济增长 项目干预改变了各种相关的人口统计结果和 来评估估计数据解释这些变化的能力 随着时间的推移和跨地区的结果。这项调查记录了一段时间 在印度的时间，这与一个自然实验非常一致，在这个实验中， 经济发展源泉，引进和完善高技术含量 生产种子品种，外在地影响财富和收入， 年印度地区的就学回报率、工资和物价 新的种子可以被种植。这些数据将被用于量化 并比较印度不同地区暴露于 新技术带来的机遇 农村生育率、死亡率、劳动力参与率、受教育程度和 家庭结构。基于对动态模型的计量分析， 经济发展影响这些人口的机制 结果，例如通过改变就学回报率或改变 儿童和妇女时间的生产价值也将是 已确认身份。这些数据还将用于衡量 教育、卫生和计划生育方案，扣除#年的变化 经济机会，关于生育率、避孕效果、死亡率 和学校使用的方法将考虑到非随机的 节目的分发。该项目的成果将提供 经济增长和经济增长相对重要性的量化证据 增加对人力资源项目的投资，以影响人口统计 变化。

In this project we use newly-available multi-level and longitudinal household data from a large national probability sample of over 4000 rural households in India covering the period 1968-1981, merged with supplementary area-specific data, to examine comprehensively the effects of economic development and program interventions on demographic and social change. We will exploit the multi-level and longitudinal aspects of the data to identify the mechanisms by which economic growth and program interventions alter a variety of related demographic outcomes and to assess the ability of the estimates to explain the evolution of these outcomes over time and across areas. The survey documents a period of time in India which conforms closely to a natural experiment in which the source of economic development, the introduction and improvement of high- yielding seed varieties, exogenously affected the wealth and incomes, the rates of return to schooling and wages and prices in areas of India in which the new seeds could be grown. The data will be used to quantify and compare across districts in India differentially exposed to the opportunities presented by the new technologies the level and change in rural fertility, mortality, labor force participation, schooling, and household structure. Based on econometric analyses of dynamic models, the mechanisms by which economic development affects these demographic outcomes, such as by changing rates of return to schooling or altering the productive values of children's and women's time, will also be identified. The data will also be used to measure the impact of education, health and family planning programs, net of changes in economic opportunities, on fertility, contraceptive efficacy, mortality and schooling using methods that will take into account the non-random distribution of the programs. The results of the project will provide quantitative evidence on the relative importance of economic growth and increased investments in human resource programs in affecting demographic change.