Modelling systems for managing bee disease: the epidemiology of European Foulbrood

这个项目将为我们对管理传粉媒介疾病的理解提供一个台阶。我们将使用结合建模和分子方法来研究欧洲臭巢（EFB）的动态，作为蜂群地方性幼虫病的一个范例，使用来自英格兰和威尔士养蜂场长期监测的历史数据。我们将利用统计，分析和空间显式建模的程序来解决这个问题。统计建模方法将用于确定与疾病流行病学有关的推定协变量（例如土地使用、天气、管理做法）（纽卡斯尔）；分析建模方法将用于调查传播过程在确定疾病流行病学中的作用（Warwick & Bath）；在调查不同实际控制措施的有效性的背景下，研究疾病的空间传播的空间明确模型（Warwick & Newcastle）。建模将使用历史数据集进行参数化，这些数据集包括英格兰和威尔士（Fera）蜜蜂养殖场中EFB分布的时间和报告发生率。基于微卫星标记和比较基因组学的分子方法将被用于表征宿主和寄生虫的多样性（Fera & Bath），作为统计、分析和空间明确模型中的附加协变量，探索EFB与宿主抗性相关的流行病学。这些数据将用于理论和空间显式模型的测试和验证。我们（Fera & Bath）与剑桥的桑格中心合作，已经生成了普鲁托尼乌斯芽孢杆菌的基因组序列草图。这些数据将极大地促进识别合适的标记，以表征大型和具有代表性的种群样本，也将阐明负责毒力的基因，以及蜜蜂宿主的发病机制。EFB将提供一个范例，我们可以对其他传粉媒介疾病进行测试。例如，开发的模型将用于调查从5000个蜂房收集的14种蜜蜂疾病的流行病学，这是正在进行的Defra资助的监测计划（Fera）的一部分。项目成果的传播在项目框架内是明确的，包括编制关键最终用户名单、利益攸关方讲习班、两年一次的项目通讯、行业文献报告、疾病管理摘要文件和出席会议。本项目开发的建模、分析和空间明确模型将作为工具，指导应对管理和野生传粉媒介面临的大量疾病威胁的战略。

This project will provide a step-change in our understanding of managed pollinator disease. We will use a combined modelling and molecular approach to investigate the dynamics of European Foul Brood (EFB) as an exemplar of endemic brood disease of honey bee colonies using historic data derived from long-term monitoring of apiaries in England and Wales. We will utilise a program of statistical, analytical and spatially explicit modelling to address the problem. Statistical modelling approaches will be used to identify putative covariates involved in the epidemiology of disease (e.g. land use, weather, management practices) (Newcastle); analytical modelling approaches will be used to investigate the role of transmission processes in determining the epidemiology of disease (Warwick & Bath); and spatially explicit models to investigate spatial spread of disease in the context of investigating the efficacy of different practical control measures (Warwick & Newcastle). The modelling will be parameterised using historic datasets which include the timing and reported incidence of EFB distribution in honey bee apiaries across England and Wales (Fera). Molecular approaches based on microsatellite markers and comparative genomics will be employed to characterise host and parasite diversity (Fera & Bath) for use as additional covariates in the statistical, analytical and spatially explicit models exploring the epidemiology of EFB in relation to host resistance. These data will be used for the testing and validation of the theoretical and spatially explicit models. We (Fera & Bath) have, in collaboration with the Sanger centre in Cambridge, already generated a draft genome sequence for M. plutonius. These data will greatly facilitate the identification of suitable markers for the characterisation of large and representative population samples and will also shed light on the genes responsible for virulence, and how pathogenesis proceeds in the bee host. EFB will provide a paradigm which we can test against other pollinator diseases. For example, developed models will be used to investigate the epidemiology of 14 honey bee diseases collected across 5000 apiaries as part of an ongoing Defra funded monitoring programme (Fera). Dissemination of project results is explicit within the project framework and includes, the production of a list of key end-users, stakeholder workshops, bi-annual project newsletters, reporting in industry literature, a disease management summary document and conference attendance. The modelling analytical and spatially explicit models developed within this project will act as tools to guide strategy in the face of a plethora of disease threats for managed and wild pollinators.