Scotland's Constitutional Debate - Patterns and Trends in Public Opinion in 2012

继苏格兰民族党（SNP）在2011年苏格兰议会选举中赢得绝对多数席位后，苏格兰是否应该独立的公投在某个时候举行似乎是不可避免的，最有可能在2014年秋天举行。今年早些时候（2012年），英国和苏格兰政府就如何进行公投进行了磋商，同时成立了支持或反对独立的运动组织。实际上，最终导致投票的竞选活动已经开始。这次公投的结果不仅对苏格兰，而且对英国其他地区都将产生深远影响。例如，如果苏格兰投票脱离英国，英国在克莱德河（Clyde）的核武器基地的未来将受到质疑。即使苏格兰最终选择留在英国，对于进一步大幅下放权力（尤其是在税收和福利方面）的好处，也存在相当大的争议，一些这样的提议可能会与独立一起出现在选票上。一些人认为，这一举措将破坏一项原则，即每个英国人都应该在需要的时候获得同等水平的政府帮助。苏格兰社会态度（SSA）是由苏格兰社会研究中心进行的年度独立高质量调查。每年大约有1200名成年人被随机挑选出来，作为整个苏格兰的代表，接受面对面的采访。自1999年权力下放以来，SSA一直在跟踪和分析苏格兰人民对他们应该如何治理的偏好和态度。因此，它已成为关于这一重要问题的公众舆论的长期趋势和模式的详细、一致但公正的资料的唯一来源。该项目将利用这一遗产，并通过包含关于2012年SSA的40个问题的模块，进一步提供有关边境以北公众舆论状况的当代信息。这些最新的结果将与前几年的结果进行比较，以评估自今年早些时候关于独立的辩论加剧以来，人们的态度模式是否发生了重大变化。与此同时，该项目将进一步开展先前的研究，以了解对独立的支持在多大程度上反映了人们的情感感受（特别是他们对苏格兰身份的认识），以及在多大程度上反映了他们认为可能的物质后果（例如对苏格兰经济的影响）。它还将这种方法扩展到分析为什么人们可能更喜欢苏格兰留在英国，但同时又希望看到苏格兰议会获得更多的税收权力和福利责任。在这场极其重要的辩论中，这些发现预计会引起各方的强烈兴趣，为可能促使选民投票的因素提供线索，并为当前的舆论状况提供最详细的证据来源。初步调查结果预计将于2012年12月在爱丁堡举行的为期半天的研讨会上公布，同时还将进行广泛的新闻宣传。将向政府内外的主要听众作进一步的后续介绍。与选举改革协会合作，将于2013年2月出版一份书面简报，随后将出版书籍章节和学术期刊。这些数据也将提供给其他学术研究人员进行分析。

Following the success of the Scottish National Party (SNP) in winning an overall majority in the 2011 Scottish Parliament election, it now seems inevitable that a referendum on whether Scotland should become independent will be held at some point, most likely in the autumn of 2014. Earlier this year (2012), both the UK and the Scottish government held consultations on how the referendum should be conducted, while putative Yes and No campaign organizations have been launched. In effect the campaign that will eventually lead to a vote has begun.The outcome of this referendum will have profound implications not only for Scotland but also for the rest of the UK. For example, should Scotland vote to leave the UK, the future of the UK's nuclear weapons base on the Clyde would be in doubt. Even if Scotland eventually opts to remain within the UK, there is considerable debate about the merits of further significant devolution, in particular of taxes and benefits, and some such proposal that may appear alongside independence on the ballot paper. Some argue such a step would undermine the principle that everyone in Britain should have access to the same level of government help in time of need. Scottish Social Attitudes (SSA) is an annual, independent high quality survey conducted by ScotCen Social Research. Around 1,200 adults selected at random and intended to be representative of Scotland as a whole are interviewed face to face each year. SSA has tracked and analysed the preferences and attitudes of people in Scotland about how they should be governed ever since the advent of devolution in 1999. As a result it has established itself as the only source of detailed consistent but impartial information on the long-term trends and patterns of public opinion on this vital subject.This project will exploit this legacy and provide further contemporaneous information on the state of public opinion north of the border by including a module of 40 questions on the 2012 SSA. These latest results will be compared with those for previous years to assess whether there has been any significant change in the pattern of attitudes since the intensification of the debate about independence earlier this year. At the same time the project will develop further previous research into how far support for independence reflects people's emotional feelings (including in particular their sense of Scottish identity) and how far it reflects what they think the material consequences might be (such as its impact on Scotland's economy). It will also extend this approach to analyzing why people might prefer Scotland to remain within the UK but at the same time would like to see further taxation powers and responsibility for welfare benefits given to the Scottish Parliament. The findings are expected to be of intense interest to all sides in this extremely important debate, providing clues as to what might motivate voters to vote one way or the other as well supplying the most detailed source of evidence on the current state of opinion. Initial findings are expected to be released at a half day seminar in Edinburgh in December 2012, accompanied by extensive press publicity. Further follow-up presentations will be given to key audiences inside and outside government. A written briefing will be published in February 2013 in collaboration with the Electoral Reform Society, followed by subsequent book chapter and academic journal publications. The data will also be made available for other academic researchers to analyse.