The North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study

北大西洋气候系统正在发生重大变化：海洋和大气温度和环流，海冰厚度和范围，以及臭氧、甲烷和气溶胶等关键大气成分。许多观测到的变化在仪器记录中是前所未有的。北大西洋的变化直接影响英国的气候、天气和空气质量，对农业、渔业、水、能源、交通和健康产生重大经济影响。北大西洋也具有全球重要性，因为这里的变化会导致气候、恶劣天气和空气质量的变化，从而影响到更远的地区，如北美、非洲和亚洲。ACSIS是一项为期5年的战略研究计划，汇集并利用了英国环境科学界的广泛能力和专业知识。它的目标是提高英国在北大西洋气候系统中探测、归因（即解释原因）和预测变化的能力。ACSIS将通过整合大气物理和化学、海洋状态和北极冰的新旧观测资料，提供对北美气候系统的新认识。这些观测将辅以详细的数据分析和数值模拟。观测将来自现有的网络，来自NERC在北大西洋的观测站点，以及来自太空的观测。利用NCAS FAAM飞机进行的季节性调查将进一步加强我们的观测策略。观测机会的一个关键方面是，对于多个变量的足够长度的数据记录首次变得可用。建模部分将包括核心数值模拟，使用最新的参数化和前所未有的空间细节，采用尖端的大气、海洋、海冰、化学和气溶胶模型，以及定制实验来调查特定时间段或探索和解释特定的观测结果。ACSIS将在理解和预测北美气候系统的变化方面提供进步，这些变化可以用来评估这些变化对英国和其他国家的影响——例如对危险天气风险、环境和商业的影响。ACSIS的产出还将为适应气候变化和空气质量的政策提供信息。

Major changes are occurring across the North Atlantic climate system: in ocean and atmosphere temperatures and circulation, in sea ice thickness and extent, and in key atmospheric constituents such as ozone, methane and particles known as aerosols. Many observed changes are unprecedented in instrumental records. Changes in the North Atlantic directly affect the UK's climate, weather and air quality, with major economic impacts on agriculture, fisheries, water, energy, transport and health. The North Atlantic also has global importance, since changes here drive changes in climate, hazardous weather and air quality further afield, such as in North America, Africa and Asia.ACSIS is a 5 year strategic research programme that brings together and exploits a wide range of capabilities and expertise in the UK environmental science community. It's goal is to enhance the UK's capability to detect, attribute (i.e. explain the causes of) and predict changes in the North Atlantic Climate System. ACSIS will deliver new understanding of the NA climate system by integrating new and old observations of atmospheric physics and chemistry, of the ocean state and of Arctic Ice. The observations will be complemented by detailed data analysis and numerical simulations.Observations will come from existing networks, from NERC's own observational sites in the North Atlantic, and from space. Seasonal surveys using the NCAS FAAM aeroplane will further enhance our observational strategy. A key dimension of the observational opportunity is that data records of sufficient length, for multiple variables, are becoming available for the first time. The modelling component will involve core numerical simulations with cutting-edge atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, chemistry and aerosol models using the latest parameterizations and unprecedented spatial detail, as well as bespoke experiments to investigate specific time periods or to explore and explain particular observations.ACSIS will provide advances in understanding and predicting changes in the NA climate system that can be exploited to assess the impact of these changes on the UK and other countries - for example in terms of the consequences for hazardous weather risk, the environment and businesses. ACSIS outputs will also inform policy on climate change adaptation and air quality.