The economic impact of El Niño related floods and drought on small and medium enterprises in Botswana, Kenya and Zambia

拟议的研究将评估与2015-16年厄尔尼诺Niño （EN）和随后的雨季相关的极端干旱（博茨瓦纳和赞比亚）和洪水（肯尼亚）的影响和应对措施。其目的是研究受以下因素影响的中小型企业（SME）的经济后果：博茨瓦纳首都哈博罗内因干旱导致供水中断；肯尼亚的特大洪水；以及由于水库水位低导致水电产量减少而导致赞比亚电力供应中断。该项目是格兰瑟姆研究所（伦敦经济学院）、非洲地球系统科学合作中心（内罗毕大学）、博茨瓦纳技术研究与创新研究所和巴罗茨兰大学（赞比亚）之间的合作项目。非洲中小企业被视为增长和繁荣的关键，但它们面临着许多挑战，包括与气候有关的基本活动中断。然而，这些影响的文件记录往往很差，经济影响的证据基础非常稀少。本研究具有时效性和紧迫性；在所有三种情况下，都需要实时/快速评估，因为回顾性研究存在回忆偏差。该研究计划于2016年4月开始，跟踪影响和响应，直至2017年2月，以重复调查环境影响、机构响应和学习情况。我们确定了三个主要目标；1)记录2015- 2016年气候变化期间和之后的水文影响和水资源管理响应。2)评估气候变化引起的中小企业破坏和缓解响应的近期和持续的社会经济影响。3)研究极端气候破坏期间影响风险认知和行为变化的因素。所有这三个目标都涉及重要的知识缺口，并旨在产生证据和新见解，为政策和实践提供信息，以支持更有效的气候风险管理。该项目旨在通过学科（水文学、气候学）和跨学科环境期刊上的学术论文做出改变。我们还将在相关的国家和区域论坛上发表演讲，并向灾害管理机构提出重要见解。我们将通过与本次呼吁支持的其他项目的联合合作（研讨会、活动），探索扩大产出的机会。研究方案和计划-研究工作包括六个主要阶段，为期18个月；1)从网络报告和当地媒体中确定环境影响的范围，并与利益相关者协商，以商定研究地点和抽样策略。2012.04 - 2012.05)设计调查和访谈问题，确定关键受访者和中小企业。2016.3 - 2016.3)第一次调查和访谈。2016.7 - 2014.8)数据录入、转录和分析。20165年9月- 12月)重复修改调查和随访访谈（学习评估）。2016年12月- 20176年2月)完成分析和撰写。2017年3月至9月传播活动将在整个期间进行，包括一个小型的项目中期利益相关者活动和每个国家的最终传播活动。拟议的工作旨在整合上下文信息，生物物理数据，访谈和调查，在研究过程中收集的关键点。这项工作将为三个国家提供与气候变化相关的干旱和洪水影响途径和损害的严格基线证据。可靠的损害证据对于减少灾害风险方案和适应的成本计算至关重要，对政府和发展行为体确定行动目标也很有用。对水/灾害管理和中小企业应对的见解以及对风险认知和学习的后续评估将使我们能够提出关于准备和应对的建议（什么有效；为什么有效、在哪里有效、何时有效），并将这些建议提供给研究、实践和政策团体。

The proposed research will assess the impacts of and responses to extreme drought (Botswana and Zambia) and floods (Kenya) associated with the 2015-16 El Niño (EN) and subsequent rainy season. The aim is to examine the economic consequences for small and medium enterprises (SME) as they are affected by: water supply disruption in Botswana's capital Gaborone due to drought; extreme flooding in Kenya; and disruption in Zambia's electricity supply due to reduced hydropower production caused by low reservoir levels. The project is a partnership between the Grantham Research Institute (London School of Economics), the African Collaborative Centre for Earth System Science (University of Nairobi), the Botswana Institute for Technology Research and Innovation and the University of Barotseland (Zambia).African SME are seen as crucial for growth and prosperity, yet they face numerous challenges, including climate-related disruption to essential activities. However, these impacts are often poorly documented and the evidence base of economic impact is very sparse. This research is timely and urgent; in all three cases there is a need for real-time/rapid assessment as retrospective studies suffer from recall bias. The study is designed to start in April 2016 and track impacts and response through to February 2017 to make repeat surveys of EN impacts, institutional response and learning. We identify three main objectives;1) To document the hydrological impacts and water resource management response during and after the 2015-16 EN.2) To assess the recent and ongoing socio-economic impacts of EN-induced disruption and mitigation responses in SME.3) To examine factors affecting risk perceptions and behavioural change during a period of extreme climate disruption. All three objectives concern important knowledge gaps and are also designed to generate evidence and novel insights that can inform policy and practice to support more effective climate risk management.The project aims to make a difference through academic papers for disciplinary (hydrology, climatology) and interdisciplinary environmental journals. We will also make presentations at relevant national and regional fora and present key insights to disaster management agencies. We will explore opportunities to scale-up outputs through joint collaborations (workshops, events) with other projects supported by this call.Programme and plan of research - The work consists of six main stages over 18 months;1) Scoping of EN impacts from web reports and local media, complemented with stakeholder consultations to agree study locations and sampling strategy. April-May 20162) Design survey and interview questions, identify key respondents and SME. May-June 20163) First survey and interviews. July-August 20164) Data entry, transcription and analysis. September-December 20165) Repeat revised survey and follow-up interviews (Learning assessment). December 2016-February 20176) Complete analysis and write-up. March-September 2017Dissemination activities will be undertaken throughout the full period and include a small mid-project stakeholder event and final dissemination event in each country.The proposed work aims to integrate contextual information, biophysical data, interviews and surveys, collected at key points during the study. The work will generate rigorous baseline evidence for three countries of EN associated drought and flood impact pathways and damages. Robust evidence of damages is essential for costing disaster risk reduction programmes and adaptation and useful to governments and development actors for targeting actions. Insights of water/disaster management and SME response and follow-up assessment of risk perceptions and learning will allow us to generate recommendations on preparedness and response (what works well; why, where and when) and feed these into research, practice and policy communities.