EVENT-LEVEL ANALYSIS OF EXPECTANCIES, ALCOHOL USE, AND CONSEQUENCES

描述（由申请人提供）：大学生酒精使用、滥用和由此产生的负面后果已被广泛记录。尽管在理解和预防过度饮酒及其相关危害方面做出了大量努力和最近取得了进展，但关于高危大学饮酒的病因和维持方面的文献仍存在相当大的空白。先前的研究已经证明，与酒精有关的负面事件可以促进饮酒行为、改变动机和饮酒相关认知的改变。本研究将有助于了解在经历负面后果的情况下，青年大学生的自我改变是如何发生的。在本建议中，我们使用事件级视角来检查预期、饮酒和后果之间的相互关系。使用交互式语音应答（IVR）， 400名大学生将在一年的时间里，每天三次报告他们的期望、饮酒和与酒精相关的后果，每隔四周报告一次。通过长期使用每日报告，我们可以确保预期、饮酒和后果之间的时间关系；最小化回忆偏差；调查预期、饮酒和后果之间的相互关系；并研究了人与人之间和人与人之间对饮酒及其后果的影响。使用多层模型，我们将(1)检查酒精预期和酒精使用之间的日常关系；(2)研究预期、后果和饮酒随时间的双向影响；(3)检查饮酒的直接后果是否会随着时间的推移而改变随后的预期和饮酒；(4)检验期望、饮酒和后果之间的人际关系的时变调节因子和时变调节因子。与自我改变相关的因素对于理解高风险饮酒的维持和波动非常重要，并可能最终帮助告知针对有后果风险但不寻求干预或治疗的饮酒者的干预措施。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Alcohol use, misuse and resulting negative consequences among college students have been extensively documented. Despite substantial efforts and recent advances in understanding and preventing excessive consumption and related harm, considerable gaps in the literature regarding etiology and maintenance of high-risk college drinking remain. Prior research has documented that negative alcohol-related events can promote changes to drinking behavior, motivations for change, and cognitions related to drinking. The proposed study will help to understand how self-change might occur among young adult college students as a result of experienced negative consequences. In this proposal, we use an event-level perspective to examine the interrelationships of expectancies, drinking, and consequences. Using Interactive Voice Response (IVR), 400 college students will report on their expectancies, drinking, and alcohol-related consequences three times daily for four two-week intervals over one year. By using daily reports over time, we can ensure temporal relationships between expectancies, drinking, and consequences; minimize recall bias; investigate reciprocal relationships of expectancies, drinking and consequences; and examine both within- and between-person influences on drinking and consequences. Using multilevel modeling, we will (1) examine the daily relationships between alcohol expectancies and alcohol use; (2) study bidirectional influences of expectancies, consequences, and drinking over time; (3) examine whether the immediate consequences of drinking change subsequent expectancies and drinking over time; and (4) examine the time-varying and time-in varying moderators of the within-person relationships between expectancies, drinking, and consequences. The factors related to self-change are important for understanding the maintenance and fluctuations of high-risk drinking and may ultimately help inform interventions targeted to drinkers who are at risk for consequences but are not seeking intervention or treatment. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: Prior research has documented that negative alcohol-related events can promote changes to drinking behavior, motivations for change, and cognitions related to drinking among young adults and college students. The proposed study will help to understand how self-change might occur among young adult college students as a result of experienced negative consequences. The factors related to self-change are important for understanding the maintenance and fluctuations of high-risk drinking and may ultimately help inform interventions targeted to drinkers who are at risk for consequences but are not seeking intervention or treatment.