An operational model for support of integrated water resources management

大多数流域面临的压力包括人口增长、土地利用变化和气候变化的影响。所有这些压力意味着，我们目前享有的优质水的现成供应在未来可能无法实现。拟议的研究将通过开发一种更有效的水资源管理方法来解决流域面临的压力。这项研究建立在水资源综合管理(IWRM)范式的基础上，该范式认识到在水、土地和相关资源的开发和管理方面需要进行协调，以公平的方式最大限度地实现经济和社会福利，而不损害生态系统的可持续性。拟议研究的一项中心活动将是开发一个在水资源管理实践中落实水资源综合管理原则的通用系统模型。水资源综合管理进程的指导原则是系统观点、综合、伙伴关系、参与、不确定性、适应和依赖强大的科学和可靠的数据。所提出的研究采用系统动力学仿真方法来表示流域内在的互联性和重要的反馈。本研究所发展的方法论将通过系统动力学仿真为水资源综合管理提供支持。重点是对复杂水资源系统的关键特征进行明确的建模和模拟，包括：基于反馈的系统结构；物理和社会经济过程(及其联系)的整体表示；适当考虑复杂的空间和时间尺度；为多个利益攸关方的参与和参与提供支持。采用这一办法应能在现在和未来对水资源系统进行高效率和有效的管理。将针对不同发展条件下的三个水资源管理问题(发达条件--加拿大案例研究；快速发展条件--巴西案例研究；发展条件--非洲案例研究)实施拟议的方法。

The stresses faced by most watersheds include population growth, changes in land use and the impacts of climatic change. All of these stresses mean that the ready access to good quality water for water supply that we currently enjoy may not be available in the future. The proposed research will address the stresses that watersheds are exposed to by developing an approach for more effictive water resources management. The research builds on the Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) paradigm that recognizes the need for coordination in the development and management of water, land and related resources, to maximize economic and social welfare in an equitable manner without compromising ecosystem sustainability. A central activity within the proposed research will be the development of a generalized system model for the impementation of IWRM principles in water resources management practice. The guiding principles of the IWRM process are systems view, integration, partnerships, participation, uncertainty, adaptation and reliance on strong science and reliable data. The proposed research adopts the system dynamics simulation approach to represent the interconnectedness and the important feedbacks inherent in a watershed. The methodology to be developed in this research will provide the support for IWRM through system dynamics simulation. The emphasis is placed on explicit modeling and simulation of key characteristics of complex water resources systems including: feedback based system structure; integral representation of physical and socio-economic processes (and their linkages); proper consideration of complex spatial and temporal scales; and provision of support for multiple stakeholder participation and involvement. The adoption of this approach should result in the efficient and effective management of water resources systems both now and in the future. The proposed approach will be implemented to three water resources management problems in different development conditions (developed conditions - Canadian case study; rapidly developing conditions - Brazilian case study; and developing conditions - African case study.