An operational model for support of integrated water resources management

大多数流域面临的压力包括人口增长、土地使用的变化和气候变化的影响。所有这些压力意味着，我们目前享有的随时获得优质供水的机会在未来可能无法获得。拟议的研究将通过制定更有效的水资源管理方法来解决流域面临的压力。该研究以水资源综合管理模式为基础，该模式认识到需要协调水、土地和相关资源的开发和管理，以公平的方式最大限度地提高经济和社会福利，同时不损害生态系统的可持续性。拟议研究的一项中心活动将是为在水资源管理实践中实施水资源综合管理原则开发一个通用系统模型。水资源综合管理进程的指导原则是：系统观点、综合、伙伴关系、参与、不确定性、适应和依靠强有力的科学和可靠的数据。建议的研究采用系统动力学模拟的方法来表示在一个流域内在的相互联系和重要的反馈。本研究所开发的方法将通过系统动力学模拟为水资源综合管理提供支持。重点放在明确的建模和模拟复杂的水资源系统的关键特征，包括：基于反馈的系统结构;物理和社会经济过程（及其联系）的整体表示;复杂的空间和时间尺度的适当考虑;和多个利益相关者的参与和参与提供支持。采用这一办法应能在现在和将来对水资源系统进行高效率和高效益的管理。所提出的方法将在不同发展条件下（发达条件-加拿大案例研究;快速发展条件-巴西案例研究;发展中条件-非洲案例研究）对三个水资源管理问题实施。

The stresses faced by most watersheds include population growth, changes in land use and the impacts of climatic change. All of these stresses mean that the ready access to good quality water for water supply that we currently enjoy may not be available in the future. The proposed research will address the stresses that watersheds are exposed to by developing an approach for more effictive water resources management. The research builds on the Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) paradigm that recognizes the need for coordination in the development and management of water, land and related resources, to maximize economic and social welfare in an equitable manner without compromising ecosystem sustainability. A central activity within the proposed research will be the development of a generalized system model for the impementation of IWRM principles in water resources management practice. The guiding principles of the IWRM process are systems view, integration, partnerships, participation, uncertainty, adaptation and reliance on strong science and reliable data. The proposed research adopts the system dynamics simulation approach to represent the interconnectedness and the important feedbacks inherent in a watershed. The methodology to be developed in this research will provide the support for IWRM through system dynamics simulation. The emphasis is placed on explicit modeling and simulation of key characteristics of complex water resources systems including: feedback based system structure; integral representation of physical and socio-economic processes (and their linkages); proper consideration of complex spatial and temporal scales; and provision of support for multiple stakeholder participation and involvement. The adoption of this approach should result in the efficient and effective management of water resources systems both now and in the future. The proposed approach will be implemented to three water resources management problems in different development conditions (developed conditions - Canadian case study; rapidly developing conditions - Brazilian case study; and developing conditions - African case study.