Long-term hydroclimatic variability in the lower North Saskatchewan River Basin

该项目所解决的具体问题是来自北萨斯喀彻温河（NSR）的供水的可靠性和安全性。工业合作伙伴赫斯基能源公司**率先在加拿大西部生产重油。这些热能项目依靠“噪音感应强的地方”作为淡水来源**，供石油加工设施产生蒸汽。尽管根据年平均流量，供水显然是可靠的，但赫斯基了解未来可能限制水可用性的因素是至关重要的。拟议的项目将使赫斯基能够解决从“西北航道”长期取水的相关风险。在提议的项目中开发的创新技术涉及到过去几个世纪的年度和季节性河流水位的重建，以及这些代理流量的随机降尺度到每周估计。这一古水文学记录了一系列的水位和变化模式，而这些在更短的仪器记录中并不明显。这种自然变率是气候变化引起的任何水文变化的基础。因此，了解长期自然变率是后续研究人为气候变化影响的重要先导。

The company-specific problem addressed by the proposed project is the degree of reliability and security of**water supplies derived from the North Saskatchewan River (NSR). The industrial partner, Husky Energy,**pioneered the production of heavy oil in Western Canada. These thermal projects rely on the NSR as a source**of freshwater for steam generation at the oil processing facilities. Despite the apparent reliability of water**supplies according to annual average flows, it is critical that Husky understands the factors that could limit**water availability in the future. The proposed project will enable Husky to address risks associated with**long-term water sourcing from the NSR. The innovative techniques developed in the proposed project relate to**the reconstruction of annual and seasonal river levels over past centuries and the stochastic downscaling of**these proxy flows to weekly estimates. This paleohydrology captures a range of water levels, and modes of**variability, that are not evident in the much shorter instrumental record. This natural variability underlies any**hydrological changes caused by a changing climate. Therefore, understanding long-term natural variability is an**important precursor to subsequent research on the impacts of anthropogenic climate change.