Forecasting Change in Hurricane Risk over Time

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ABSTRACT Proposal : CMS-0114215 PI: Rachel Davidson Institution: Cornell University DateL July 11, 2001 Project Abstract: "Forecasting Change in Hurricane Risk over Time" The objectives of this project are to: (1) develop a methodology to quantitatively model how hurricane risk in the U.S. changes over time and how risk management strategies can affect the amount and rate of change, and (2) demonstrate the methodology through a case study on the coast of North and South Carolina. Hurricane risk (e.g., in terms of expected annual economic loss) changes over time due to population and economic growth, changing construction practices, aging infrastructure, and other forces. Since hurricane risk continuously changes, those who attempt to assess and manage it are chasing a moving target. While available regional loss estimation mosels are based on the best estimate of how the world looks today-where people live and in what types of structures, this new methodology will incorporate the dynamic nature of the urban environment. This tools will enable risk managers to anticipate how the world will change, estimate what the risk will be at the time in the future when the next hurricane occurs, and plan for that future scenario. By making loss estimation modeling dynamic, the new methodology will benefit government agencies, insurance companies, and others in risk management decision-making. The methodology also can improve risk communication. By establishing more directly and quantitatively the connection between improve risk communication. By establishing more directly and quantitatively the connection between today's actions and the effects of a hurricane 20 years from now (e.g., as a decision to build on the coast today creates structues to be damanaged in the next hurricane), hurricanes can be perceived more as a present concern, rather than an issue to be addressed at some unspecified future time. This study focuses on hurricanes and the Carolina coast, but could be extended to other hazards and other regions. The simulation-based methodology will integrate urban dynamics and regional loss estimation modeling techniques. Its development requires: (1) designing the overall hurricane risk forecasting methodology, developing the (2) loss estimation model and (3) urban dynamics model that are components of the methodology, (4) conducting the case study, (5) validating the overall hurricane risk forecasting model, and (6) using the methodology to analyze sample hurricane risk management questions.