POWRE: Hurricane Risk Modeling and Forecasting

0074686戴维森PI在地震风险分析方面有多年的经验。 这个POWRE奖将使她能够扩大她的研究，包括飓风风险分析，以及最终采用多灾害的方法来风险评估和管理的目标。这个项目将给PI的技能，背景和必要的连接，使这种过渡。这项研究有两个主要目标。首先，PI将在一个新的研究领域--飓风风险分析--中获得专业知识并建立关系，该领域的专家大卫·罗索夫斯基博士、谢连博士以及他们分别在克莱姆森大学土木工程系和北卡罗来纳州州立大学海洋、地球和大气科学系的研究同事将提供支持。作为该项目的顾问，Rosowsky和Xie将分别接待PI及其研究助理进行为期两周的访问。其次，更具体地说，参与这项研究将使PI准备与Rosowsky和Xie进行计划中的合作项目，以预测飓风风险随着时间的推移而变化。随着城市的发展、老化和演变，它们面对自然灾害的风险和脆弱性发生了巨大变化。因此，风险评估人员和管理人员将永远落后于问题，除非他们预见到世界将如何变化，估计未来下一次飓风发生时的风险，并为未来的情景做好计划。计划中的预测研究将建立一个飓风风险如何随时间变化的模型，以便风险管理人员能够更有效地进行规划，这两个目标将通过实现POWRE项目的具体目标来实现。首先，PI将与顾问合作，深入了解Rosowsky开发的飓风风险模型和Xie开发的沿海洪水风险模型。其次，PI将开发脆弱性模型，预测飓风和沿海洪水造成的损失。第三，将开发克莱姆森风模型、NCSU沿海洪水模型和脆弱性模型之间的接口，使它们共同形成一个原型风险评估系统。最后，灾害和脆弱性模型将应用于北卡罗来纳州海岸，以测试接口并证明原型风险评估系统的可行性。

0074686DavidsonThe PI has several years experience in earthquake risk analysis. This POWRE award will allow her to expand her research to include hurricane risk analysis as well, with the goal of ultimately adopting a multihazard approach to risk assessment and management. This project will give the PI the skills, background, and connections necessary to make this transition. The study has two main goals. First, the PI will gain expertise and forge relationships in a new research area, hurricane risk analysis, with the support of experts in the field, Dr. David Rosowsky, Dr. Lian Xie, and their research colleagues at the Clemson University Civil Engineering Department and the North Carolina State University Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences Department, respectively. As consultants on this project, Rosowsky and Xie each will host the PI and her research assistant for a two-week visit. Second, more specifically, participation in this study will prepare the PI to conduct a planned collaborative project with Rosowsky and Xie to forecast hurricane risk as it changes over time. As cities grow, age, and evolve, their exposure and vulnerability to natural hazards changes dramatically. Risk assessors and managers, therefore, will always be a step behind the problem unless they anticipate how the world will change, estimate what the risk will be at that time in the future when the next hurricane occurs, and plan for that future scenario. The planned forecasting study will develop a model of how hurricane risk changes over time so that risk managers can plan more effectively.These two goals will be achieved through the accomplishment of the specific objectives of the POWRE project. First, the PI will work with the consultants to develop a deep understanding of the hurricane wind hazard model Rosowsky has developed and the coastal flooding hazard model Xie has developed. Second, the PI will develop vulnerability models that predict damage due to hurricane winds and coastal flooding. Third, interfaces between the Clemson wind model, NCSU coastal flooding model, and vulnerability models will be developed so that together they form a prototype risk assessment system. Finally, the hazard and vulnerability models will be applied to the coast of North Carolina to test the interfaces and demonstrate the feasibility of the prototype risk assessment system.***