Doctoral Dissertation Research: Ambiguity Aversion and Strategic Play in One-Shot Normal-Form Games

博士论文研究：一次性范式博弈中的歧义厌恶与策略博弈

• 批准号: 0609744
• 负责人: Dan Levin
• 金额: $ 0.64万
• 依托单位: Ohio State University Research Foundation -DO NOT USE
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-09-01 至 2007-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0609744&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Ambiguity; Aversion

The study of behavior under uncertainty is one of the central areas in economics. One can distinguish between two types of uncertainty: objective and subjective. Objective uncertainty is present when there are clear objective probabilities with which different outcomes occur, e.g. when one flips a fair coin. Subjective uncertainty is present when there are no clear objective probabilities with which the different outcomes occur, e.g. when one invests in the stock market. Even though mainstream economic theory makes no distinction between objective and subjective uncertainty, this distinction seems to play an important role for behavior. In particular people seem to dislike subjective uncertainty -- in economic terminology they are ambiguity averse.The aim of the proposed research is to investigate experimentally to what extent people are ambiguity-averse when the subjective uncertainty arises in the context of a game. Our experimental game is a one-shot decision situation in which payoffs depends not only on the players' decisions but also on the decisions of other people. As players do not know in advance what the decision of the other persons are, they face uncertainty regarding what the other persons will do and hence regarding their own payoff. This uncertainty is subjective since players are not told how likely it is that the other persons will make each decision. Although there are many experimental studies on ambiguity aversion in individual decision making, there is a lack of such studies in the context of games. Given that game theory (which plays a central role in modern economics) ignores ambiguity aversion, it is important to investigate to what extent ambiguity aversion does have an impact on behavior in games. Such investigation could give us a better understanding of the current limitations of game theory and it may provide motivation for future efforts to incorporate ambiguity aversion into game theory.

不确定性下的行为研究是经济学的中心地区之一。一种可以区分两种类型的不确定性：客观和主观。当出现不同结果的明确客观概率时，就会存在客观的不确定性，例如当一个人翻转一枚公平的硬币时。当没有明显的客观概率发生不同的结果时，就会存在主观不确定性，例如当一个人投资于股票市场时。即使主流经济理论在客观和主观不确定性之间没有区别，但这种区别似乎对行为起着重要作用。特别是人们似乎不喜欢主观的不确定性 - 在经济术语中，它们是歧义性的。拟议的研究的目的是在游戏中出现主观不确定性时，在实验中，人们在实验中进行了歧义。我们的实验游戏是一个单一的决策情况，其中的回报不仅取决于玩家的决定，还取决于其他人的决定。由于玩家不知道其他人的决定是什么，因此他们对其他人会做什么面临不确定性，因此在自己的回报方面面临不确定。这种不确定性是主观的，因为没有告诉其他人将做出每个决定的可能性。尽管在个人决策中有许多关于歧义厌恶的实验研究，但在游戏背景下缺乏此类研究。鉴于游戏理论（在现代经济学中起着核心作用）忽略了歧义性的厌恶，因此重要的是要研究歧义性厌恶的程度确实会影响游戏中的行为。这种调查可以使我们更好地了解游戏理论的当前局限性，并且可以为将来的努力提供动力，以将歧义厌恶纳入游戏理论。