Collaborative Research: Communicating Hurricane Information to Local Officials for Protective Active Decision Making

在过去的30年里，飓风预报的许多方面都取得了重大进展，但对沿海人口如何解释传达给他们的天气信息的系统研究却很少。到目前为止，大多数飓风信息的评估包括反应标准（询问潜在用户是否喜欢显示），而不是学习（测试用户是否理解显示）或性能（显示是否改变用户？决策）标准。然而，越来越多的轶事证据表明，许多人误解了气象学家提供的显示。为了更好地了解人们如何解释飓风预报以及这些预报中的不确定性，本研究将通过对现有和新的飓风信息显示进行评估，系统地研究飓风跟踪中涉及的认知过程。第一项任务将评估用户如何解释风暴路径信息的三个基本要素？跟踪轨迹（风暴所在的位置）、预报轨迹（风暴最有可能前往的位置）和轨迹不确定性（风暴偏离预报轨迹的可能性）。参与者将在不同的实验条件下观察由这三个基本要素描述的模拟飓风。一些参与者将只得到关于一个基本元素的信息（例如，仅预报轨道），其他人将被给予关于组合的两个基本元素的信息（例如，预测轨迹和不确定性锥），有些人将获得有关所有三个基本要素的信息。通过比较这些信息条件下的参与者，研究团队将能够深入了解这三个基本要素中的每一个是如何影响人们的？对风暴轨迹的预测。第二个任务将集中在第三个基本要素的飓风路径信息（跟踪不确定性），通过比较传统的不确定性锥与五个替代跟踪不确定性显示？数字概率、颜色编码概率、地形编码概率、箭头字形和动态轨迹。比较来自这六种信息条件的数据将使我们能够确定是否有任何替代显示提供了传达轨道不确定性的更好方法。最后，第三个任务将使用前两个任务的发现来设计和评估可视化风暴信息的新方法。拟议中的研究将对飓风跟踪中涉及的认知过程进行严格的评估。因此，它对复杂动态任务的认知心理学（特别是判断和决策）具有影响。此外，该项目将对教学产生影响，因为很少有研究涉及训练成年人执行很少执行但关键的判断任务（如飓风跟踪）的问题。该项目将使气象学家更好地了解人们解释飓风预报的方式以及这些预报的不确定性。这种更好的了解将使他们能够更有效地与沿海人口沟通，并减少偏离预测轨迹的飓风造成生命损失的可能性。

The past 30 years have seen major advances in many aspects of hurricane forecasting, but there has been little systematic research on the way coastal populations interpret the weather information that is communicated to them. To date, most evaluations of hurricane information have comprised reaction criteria (asking whether potential users like a display) rather than learning (testing whether users understand a display) or performance (whether a display changes users? decisions) criteria. However, there is a growing body of anecdotal evidence that many people misunderstand the displays meteorologists are providing. To better understand how people interpret hurricane forecasts and the uncertainties in those forecasts, this research will systematically examine the cognitive processes involved in hurricane tracking by conducting an evaluation of existing and novel hurricane information displays. The first task will assess the ways in which users interpret three basic elements of storm track information?the trailing track (where the storm has been), the forecast track (where it is most likely to go), and track uncertainty (how likely it is to deviate from the forecast track). Participants in different experimental conditions will observe simulated hurricanes described by these three basic elements. Some participants will be given information about only one basic element (e.g., forecast track only), others will be given information about two basic elements in combination (e.g., forecast track and uncertainty cone), and some will be given information about all three basic elements. By comparing participants in these information conditions, the research team will be able to gain insight into how each of the three basic elements affects people?s expectations about storm tracks over time. The second task will focus on the third basic element of hurricane track information (track uncertainty) by comparing a conventional uncertainty cone with five alternative track uncertainty displays?numeric probabilities, color-coded probabilities, terrain coded probabilities, arrow glyphs, and dynamic tracks. Comparing the data from these six information conditions will allow us to determine if any of the alternative displays provides a better way of conveying track uncertainty. Finally, the third task will use the findings from the first two tasks to design and evaluate new ways of visualizing storm information. The proposed research will provide a rigorous assessment of the cognitive processes involved in hurricane tracking. Accordingly, it has implications for the cognitive psychology (especially judgment and decision making) of complex dynamic tasks. In addition, the project will have implications for instruction because there is very little research that addresses the problems of training adults to perform rarely performed, but critical, judgment tasks such as hurricane tracking. The project will provide meteorologists with a better understanding of the ways in which people interpret hurricane forecasts and the uncertainties in those forecasts. This improved understanding will allow them to communicate more effectively with coastal populations and reduce the probability that lives will be lost in hurricanes that deviate from their forecast tracks.