Develop An Evacuation Management Decision Support System

开发疏散管理决策支持系统

• 批准号: 0219155
• 负责人: Michael Lindell
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Texas A&M Engineering Experiment Station
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2002
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2002-09-15 至 2006-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0219155&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Develop; Evacuation; Management; Decision; Support

Since the Galveston hurricane of 1900, improved systems for detection, warning, and evacuation have decreased the loss of life from natural hazards in the United States. Population growth in hazard prone areas is likely to reverse this trend unless prompt and effective measures are taken. Hazard-resistant land use and building construction practices could help to contain loss of life despite population growth, but there are economic and political barriers to implementing them. Improvements in the ability to evacuate threatened populations will thus be needed.This research project addresses this need by developing an Evacuation Management Decision Support System (EMDSS) to assist public officials in monitoring a hazard's onset and determining when and where to initiate evacuations. A large data base on warning/preparation times, compliance/spontaneous evacuation rates, evacuation route utilization, and evacuation costs for both risk area residents and transients (especially business and tourist travelers), and economic impacts to business due to evacuations will be constructed using multiple surveys. Data on warning and preparation times, compliance and spontaneous evacuation rates, and evacuation route utilization are sparse; data on evacuation costs (as opposed to losses from disaster impact) are lacking in the literature. This database will feed the EMDSS to provide public officials support in facing hazards, such as hurricanes and help them balance the threat to public safety against evacuation costs under time constraints and uncertainty. Valuable disciplinary goals will be reached through the collection and analysis of data that advance theoretical disaster research. In addition, the project will perform a major interdisciplinary function by integrating social psychological theories with those from transportation planning to develop an improved evacuation time estimation model, and with theories from household and business economics to develop an evacuation cost model. These perspectives will be integrated with concepts from decision analysis and decision support systems to produce the EMDSS. Broader social utility will result through significant advances in technology to support evacuation decisions. This work will add value to and leverage the hazard vulnerability analysis and evacuation planning work performed by the Hazard Reduction & Recovery Center for the Texas Governor's Division of Emergency Management (DEM) for over twenty years. This close relationship with an operational agency is unique among university-based hazard/disaster research centers. The relationship between HRRC and DEM provides an unparalleled opportunity for user input into software design and accelerated technology transfer to state and local emergency managers. The research will be coordinated with personnel from the Taiwanese National Science and Technology Program for Hazard Mitigation (NAPHM), who are interested in collaborating in the extending the EMDSS to evacuations from landslides and inland flooding. The Hazard Reduction & Recovery Center has a Memorandum of Agreement with NAPHM that has promoted cooperative exchanges between the two centers.Finally, graduate students will benefit by their involvement in survey development, data collection, and EMDSS development and evaluation. A broader group of graduate students will benefit from inclusion of this material in the investigators' environmental hazard management courses (especially the one on disaster response planning) and in a future edition of the textbook, Behavioral Foundations of Community Emergency Planning. The project will employ members of under-represented groups, especially women and students from developing countries

自1900年加尔维斯顿飓风以来，改善了检测，警告和疏散的系统，减少了美国自然危害的生命损失。除非采取迅速有效的措施，否则容易发生危险地区的人口增长可能会扭转这一趋势。抗危险的土地使用和建筑施工实践可能有助于阻止尽管人口增长，但实施它们的经济和政治障碍。因此，将需要提高撤离威胁人口的能力的改善。该研究项目通过开发疏散管理决策支持系统（EMDS）来帮助公职人员来帮助公职人员监测危害的发作并确定何时以及何时撤离撤离。关于警告/准备时间，合规性/自发撤离率，疏散路线利用率以及风险区域居民和瞬变（尤其是商业和旅游旅客）的疏散成本以及由于疏散而对企业产生的经济影响。有关警告和准备时间，合规性和自发撤离率以及疏散路线利用率的数据很少；文献中缺乏有关疏散成本的数据（与灾难影响造成的损失相反）。该数据库将为EMDS提供喂食，以提供公职人员的支持，以面对危险，并帮助他们在时间限制和不确定性下对公共安全的威胁平衡疏散费用。通过收集和分析推进理论灾难研究的数据，将实现有价值的纪律目标。此外，该项目将通过将社会心理学理论与运输计划中的社会心理学理论相结合，以开发改进的疏散时间估计模型，以及来自家庭和商业经济学的理论来开发疏散成本模型的理论，从而执行主要的跨学科功能。这些观点将与决策分析和决策支持系统的概念集成，以生产EMDS。更广泛的社会公用事业将通过支持疏散决策的重大进展来实现。这项工作将为德克萨斯州州长紧急管理部（DEM）的危害减少与恢复中心执行的危险脆弱性分析和疏散计划工作增加价值，并为撤离计划增加了二十多年。在大学危害/灾难研究中心中，与运营机构的这种密切关系是独一无二的。 HRRC和DEM之间的关系为用户输入软件设计和加速技术转移提供了无与伦比的机会。这项研究将与台湾国家科学和缓解危险技术计划（NAPHM）的人员进行协调，他们有兴趣在将EMDS扩展到疏散陆地滑坡和内陆洪水中的疏散。危害减少与恢复中心与NAPHM有一项备忘录，该备忘录促进了两个中心之间的合作交流。从最后，研究生将受益于他们参与调查开发，数据收集以及EMDSS的开发和评估和评估。一群更广泛的研究生将受益于将此材料纳入调查人员的环境危害管理课程（尤其是灾难响应计划的一项）以及未来的教科书《社区紧急计划的行为基础》中。该项目将雇用代表性不足的群体的成员，尤其是来自发展中国家的妇女和学生