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Health vs. Wealth: Non-financial life-cycle decisions and their impact on consumption-portfolio choice with unspanned labor income

健康与财富：非金融生命周期决策及其对劳动收入未扩张的消费组合选择的影响

基本信息

批准号：
269126390
负责人：
Professor Dr. Holger Kraft
金额：
--
依托单位：
Abteilung Finanzen
依托单位国家：
德国
项目类别：
Research Grants
财政年份：
2015
资助国家：
德国
起止时间：
2014-12-31 至 2017-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/269126390?language=en
关键词：
Health vs.Wealth Non financial

项目摘要

Studying life-cycle consumption-portfolio problems of individuals is a central field of research in finance. This project makes an important contribution by explicitly taking unspanned labor income risk and biometric risks (mortality, morbidity) into account. Although these two sources of risk are of major importance for all households, they are either disregarded or at least not analyzed simultaneously. In particular, the existing literature usually makes the unrealistic assumption that labor income is hedgeable, since problems with unspanned labor income are notoriously hard to solve. However, it is well known that the presence of unspanned income can significantly influence consumption-portfolio decisions. Our project closes this gap and thus several relevant research questions can be addressed. First, we assume that complete insurance markets for biometric risks exist and analyze how unspanned labor income risk affects insurance demands. We also study whether mispricing of insurance contracts (e.g. due to moral hazard or adverse selection problems) can crowd out insurance demands and might explain potential non-participation puzzles. Therefore, our project leads to a deeper understanding of an individual's consumption-portfolio decision if two of the most relevant risk sources (labor income and biometric) are taken into account. Second, we consider a model with unspanned biometric risks, which for instance might arise from significant copayments, and calculate indifference prices that an individual would be willing to pay if these unspanned biometric risks were insurable. This might lead to relevant policy implications. For instance, we can address the question of which size of copayments an agent with average health status is willing to tolerate without suffering significant welfare losses. In an aging society with exploding health care costs, this issue is very relevant, since copayments can be used to curtail the cost explosion in the health sector. Besides, they mitigate moral hazard issues arising from the fact that especially high-risk agents might seek insurance coverage. Third, we also enrich our model by adding owner-occupied real estate. This is a relevant extension because, among other things, a house can serve as collateral to cover health expenses. Alternatively, it can be sold so that the proceeds can be used to pay for services such as nursing home care. Therefore, owning a house also provides a hedge against uninsurable biometric risks. Understanding the link between owner-occupied real estate and health decisions is another important issue that we address. Finally, our project also makes a significant theoretical contribution since we develop a numerical approach that provides explicit near-optimal solutions to consumption-portfolio problems in the presence of unspanned event risks (e.g. health shocks).

研究个人生命周期消费投资组合问题是金融学的一个核心研究领域。该项目通过明确考虑未跨越的劳动收入风险和生物识别风险（死亡率，发病率）做出了重要贡献。虽然这两个风险来源对所有家庭都非常重要，但它们要么被忽视，要么至少没有同时进行分析。特别是，现有的文献通常不切实际地假设劳动收入是可套期保值的，因为众所周知，非跨越劳动收入的问题很难解决。然而，众所周知，非跨越收入的存在可以显着影响消费投资组合的决定。我们的项目填补了这一空白，因此可以解决几个相关的研究问题。首先，我们假设存在生物识别风险的完全保险市场，并分析非跨越劳动收入风险如何影响保险需求。我们还研究了保险合同的错误定价（例如，由于道德风险或逆向选择问题）是否可以挤出保险需求，并可能解释潜在的非参与难题。因此，如果考虑到两个最相关的风险来源（劳动收入和生物特征），我们的项目会更深入地了解个人的消费投资组合决策。其次，我们考虑一个模型与未跨越的生物特征风险，例如可能会产生重大的共付额，并计算无差异价格，个人愿意支付，如果这些未跨越的生物特征风险是可保险的。这可能会带来相关的政策影响。例如，我们可以解决这样一个问题：一个健康状况一般的代理人愿意容忍多大规模的共同负担，而不会遭受重大的福利损失。在一个医疗保健费用爆炸的老龄化社会，这个问题是非常相关的，因为共同支付可以用来减少医疗部门的费用爆炸。此外，它们减轻了道德风险问题，因为特别是高风险的代理人可能会寻求保险。第三，我们还通过增加业主自用的真实的地产来丰富我们的模型。这是一个相关的延伸，因为除其他外，房子可以作为抵押品来支付医疗费用。或者，它可以被出售，以便收益可以用来支付服务，如养老院护理。因此，拥有一所房子也提供了一个对冲不可保险的生物识别风险。了解业主自住的真实的房地产和健康决策之间的联系是我们要解决的另一个重要问题。最后，我们的项目也作出了重大的理论贡献，因为我们开发了一种数值方法，提供了明确的近最优解决方案的消费投资组合问题的存在未跨越的事件风险（如健康冲击）。