Population Vulnerability and Resilience to Hurricanes on the Gulf Coast

描述（由申请人提供）：本项目对卡特里娜飓风和丽塔飓风造成的数十万墨西哥湾沿岸居民的灾难性流离失所作出回应，将这些事件置于更广阔的历史和地理视角中。对1950- 2000年期间所有有记录的风暴造成的损失的估计，将以高分辨率显示遭受洪水或风力破坏的地区的边界，并将与关于人口变化和经济活动的其他数据一起纳入地理信息系统框架。分析将评估风暴破坏对人类社区随后变化的影响，估计这种影响的持续时间，并根据其位置评估哪些人口群体最容易受到破坏。分析将纳入县经济活动的现有数据（并在必要时开发新的估计），这些数据来自县商业模式（自1970年以来作为年度时间序列提供）和经济分析局（自1969年以来），按种族、年龄和性别划分的县人口净迁移（自1970年以来作为年度时间序列提供，以及1950-2000年的几十年），以及按县人口的教育、年龄、种族和性别划分的县人口（将在1990-2000年进行估计）。人口普查区的人口规模和构成（1950年开始的城市化地区和1990年和2000年的所有地区）。这些分析的一个特点是空间效应的估计，确定人口或经济活动是否倾向于转移到邻近的县，或者跨越多个县的损害是否会加剧其影响。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This project responds to the disastrous displacement of hundreds of thousands of Gulf Coast residents by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita by placing these events in a broader historical and geographic perspective. Estimates of damage from all recorded storms in the period 1950- 2000, showing at a high resolution the boundaries of areas that suffered flooding or wind damage, will be brought together in a Geographic Information System framework with other data on population change and economic activity. Analyses will assess the impact of storm damage on subsequent changes in human communities, estimate the duration of such impacts, and evaluate which population groups are, by their location, most at risk of damage. Analyses will incorporate existing data (and where necessary develop new estimates) on economic activity in counties from County Business Patterns (available as an annual time series since 1970) and Bureau of Economic Analysis (since 1969), net migration of population of counties by race, age, and sex (available as an annual time series since 1970, and across decades for 1950-2000) and by education, age, race, and sex of the population of counties (to be estimated for the 1990-2000 decade), and the size and composition of the population of census tracts (available for urbanized areas beginning in 1950 and for all areas in 1990 and 2000). A special feature of these analyses will be the estimation of spatial effects, determining whether population or economic activity tends to be displaced to adjacent counties or whether damage extending across multiple counties accentuates its effects. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: This project responds to the disastrous displacement of hundreds of thousands of Gulf Coast residents by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita by placing these events in a broader historical and geographic perspective. The project will provide new information about the short-term and long- term consequences of storms on economic activity and human settlements, information that is essential to formulation of public policies to promote sustainable communities.