Materials Science Approach to Volcanic Eruption Prediction

大多数火山爆发之前都有可测量的地球物理和地球化学变化，尽管即使有这样的数据，成功的预测也是罕见的。解决这一预测问题的一种新方法是在物质破坏的最后阶段和火山即将喷发时的前兆行为之间进行数学类比。在这项工作中，火山爆发是根据一条支配失败的基本法则来描述的；根据这一规律，可以推导出用于预测岩石破坏和随之发生的喷发的具体方程和速率-时间图。结果是，“喷发窗口”可能比其他方法更早被识别出来，并且精度更高。这种方法可以应用于滑坡、地震、溃坝和其他与材料失效有关的危害。

Most volcanic eruptions are preceded by measurable geophysical and geochemical changes although, even with such data, successful forecasts are rare. A new way of approaching the prediction problem is to draw a mathematical analogy between the terminal stages of material failure and the precursory behavior of a volcano as it builds towards an eruption. In this work, eruptions are described in terms of a fundamental law that governs failure; and from this law specific equations and rate-time plots can be derived which will be used to predict rock failure and the attendant eruption. The result is that "eruption windows" may be recognized earlier than by other methods, and with enhanced precision. This approach can be applied to landslides, earthquakes, dam breaks and other hazards related to material failures.