Risk Management of Extreme Events in Engineered Systems Vulnerable to Climate Change

9322213雅科夫这项工作解决了在气候变化条件下管理工程系统中极端事件风险的问题。这项研究将由三项任务组成，其中第一项任务将确定现有风险管理方法在全球气候变化中的潜在应用；第二项任务将建立极端事件统计数据、作为极端事件衡量标准的条件风险函数和广义重现期概念之间的联系；第三项任务将处理前两项任务的结果在潜在气候变化下的洪水风险评估和管理中的应用，包括工程系统基于风险的设计决策。这项工作的结果将是更好地了解气候变化对防洪工程规划和设计的潜在影响。***

9322213 Yacov The work addresses the issue of managing the risk of extreme events in engineered systems under climate change conditions. The research will consist of three tasks of which the first will be to determine the potential application of existing risk management methods to global climate change; the second will be to establish the links among the statistics of extreme events, the conditional risk function as a measure of extremes, and the generalized concept of return period; and the third task will deal with the application of the results from the first two tasks to the assessment and management of flood risk under potential climate change including decision-making for the risk-based design of engineered systems. The results from this work will be the improved understanding of the potential impact of climate changes on engineering planning and design for flood control. ***