Understanding Individual Differences in Judgmental Performance

摘要斯图尔特#0078783要在不确定的情况下做出好的判断，需要什么？对于任何给定的判断问题，有些人表现得比其他人更好。无论是日常判断，如司机判断安全车速或消费者判断产品质量，还是专业判断，如医生判断儿童疾病的严重程度，或天气预报员判断风暴产生龙卷风的可能性，都是如此。判断表现的差异仅仅是经验和训练的差异，还是反映了良好判断所必需的基本认知能力的差异？这项研究将考察三种认知能力及其与良好判断的关系：(A)智力，(B)良好的统计推理，(C)在新情况下学习准确使用信息的能力。将招募当地社区成员和专家天气预报员参加。对于两组，两个日常判断问题将被用来衡量判断表现。此外，天气预报员的专业判断表现将根据他们作为预报员的记录和在一项新任务中的表现进行评估。这些数据将被用来探索日常和专业判断任务中的判断技能与其他认知能力之间的关系。研究结果将提高我们对什么是准确判断的理解。它们还将有助于培训专业人员和设计系统，以支持在不确定情况下作出更好的判断和决策。

Abstract Stewart # 0078783 What is necessary for good judgment in uncertain situations? For any given judgment problem, some people perform better than others. This is true both for everyday judgments, such as a driver judging a safe speed or a consumer judging the quality of a product, and for professional judgments, such as a physician judging the severity of a child's illness or a weather forecaster judging the probability that a storm will spawn tornadoes. Are the differences in judgmental performance simply a result of differences in experience and training, or do they reflect differences in fundamental cognitive abilities necessary for good judgment? This study will examine three cognitive abilities and how they relate to good judgment: (a) intelligence (b) good statistical reasoning and (c) the ability to learn to use information accurately in new situations. Members of the local community and expert weather forecasters will be recruited to participate. For both groups, two everyday judgment problems will be used to measure judgment performance. In addition, the weather forecasters' professional judgment performance will be assessed based on their track record as forecasters and their performance on a new task. The data will be used to explore how judgmental skill in everyday and professional judgment tasks is related to other cognitive abilities. The study results will improve our understanding of what goes into accurate judgment. They will also contribute to the training of professionals and to the design of systems to support better judgment and decision making in uncertain situations.