Forecasting Change in Hurricane Risk over Time

摘要提案：CMS-0114215 PI：雷切尔·戴维森学院：康奈尔大学7月11日2001项目摘要：“预测飓风风险随时间的变化”该项目的目标是：(1)开发一种方法来定量模拟美国飓风风险如何随时间变化，以及风险管理策略如何影响变化的数量和速度；(2)通过对北卡罗来纳州和南卡罗来纳州海岸的案例研究来演示该方法。由于人口和经济增长、不断变化的建筑实践、老化的基础设施和其他力量，飓风风险（例如，就预期的年度经济损失而言）随着时间的推移而变化。由于飓风风险不断变化，那些试图评估和管理它的人正在追逐一个移动的目标。虽然现有的区域损失估算模型是基于对当今世界面貌的最佳估计——人们生活在哪里以及在什么类型的结构中，但这种新的方法将纳入城市环境的动态性质。这些工具将使风险管理人员能够预测世界将如何变化，估计未来下一次飓风发生时的风险，并为未来的情景制定计划。通过使损失估算模型动态，新方法将有利于政府机构、保险公司和其他风险管理决策机构。该方法还可以改善风险沟通。通过建立更直接和定量的联系，改善风险沟通。通过更直接和定量地建立今天的行动与20年后飓风的影响之间的联系（例如，今天在海岸上建造的决定会在下一次飓风中造成破坏），飓风可以被更多地视为当前关注的问题，而不是在某个不确定的未来时间解决的问题。这项研究的重点是飓风和卡罗莱纳海岸，但可以扩展到其他危害和其他地区。基于模拟的方法将整合城市动态和区域损失估计建模技术。它的发展需要：(1)设计整体飓风风险预测方法，开发(2)损失估计模型和(3)作为方法组成部分的城市动态模型，(4)进行案例研究，(5)验证整体飓风风险预测模型，(6)使用该方法分析样本飓风风险管理问题。

ABSTRACT Proposal : CMS-0114215 PI: Rachel Davidson Institution: Cornell University DateL July 11, 2001 Project Abstract: "Forecasting Change in Hurricane Risk over Time" The objectives of this project are to: (1) develop a methodology to quantitatively model how hurricane risk in the U.S. changes over time and how risk management strategies can affect the amount and rate of change, and (2) demonstrate the methodology through a case study on the coast of North and South Carolina. Hurricane risk (e.g., in terms of expected annual economic loss) changes over time due to population and economic growth, changing construction practices, aging infrastructure, and other forces. Since hurricane risk continuously changes, those who attempt to assess and manage it are chasing a moving target. While available regional loss estimation mosels are based on the best estimate of how the world looks today-where people live and in what types of structures, this new methodology will incorporate the dynamic nature of the urban environment. This tools will enable risk managers to anticipate how the world will change, estimate what the risk will be at the time in the future when the next hurricane occurs, and plan for that future scenario. By making loss estimation modeling dynamic, the new methodology will benefit government agencies, insurance companies, and others in risk management decision-making. The methodology also can improve risk communication. By establishing more directly and quantitatively the connection between improve risk communication. By establishing more directly and quantitatively the connection between today's actions and the effects of a hurricane 20 years from now (e.g., as a decision to build on the coast today creates structues to be damanaged in the next hurricane), hurricanes can be perceived more as a present concern, rather than an issue to be addressed at some unspecified future time. This study focuses on hurricanes and the Carolina coast, but could be extended to other hazards and other regions. The simulation-based methodology will integrate urban dynamics and regional loss estimation modeling techniques. Its development requires: (1) designing the overall hurricane risk forecasting methodology, developing the (2) loss estimation model and (3) urban dynamics model that are components of the methodology, (4) conducting the case study, (5) validating the overall hurricane risk forecasting model, and (6) using the methodology to analyze sample hurricane risk management questions.