Model Chance: A Technology-rich Environment for Learning Probability

该项目将开发和发布概率建模软件以及中学辅助课程材料。该项目将利用几个当前和最近完成的项目的研究和人员，这些项目一直在研究学生如何通过建模方法推理和学习概率。开发的计算机模型将扩大学生学习随机过程的可能性。该项目将产生三大产品：(i)商业化开发的概率模拟软件；（ii）出版传统教材的替代单元，使用计算机模拟来教授概率论；（三）为研究人员和课堂教师提供评估项目数据库，以评估概率大思想的发展。材料的开发将采用“逆向设计”。实际的编程工作将由一个有经验的技术公司分包完成。开发人员在数学概率、数学教育、学习理论和软件设计方面组建了一个专家团队。他们将在两个为不同人口服务的学区进行试点和实地测试，并制定一个利用这些经验反馈的良好计划。形成性评价将仔细审查开发过程，而独立的总结性评价将调查实地测试地点的实施结果与学生成绩的关系。商业出版商已经表达了对该项目的兴趣。

This project will develop and publish probability modeling software along with supplementary curriculum materials for middle school. The project will draw on the research and personnel of several current and recently completed projects that have been researching how students reason and learn about probability through a modeling approach. The computer models developed would expand the possibilities for student learning about stochastic processes. Three major products will result from this project: (i) commercially developed probability simulation software; (ii) published replacement units for traditional texts, using computer simulation to teach probability; and (iii) a data bank of assessment items for researchers and classroom teachers, to evaluate the development of the big ideas in probability. Development of the materials will proceed using 'backward design'. The actual programming will be done under a subcontract to an experienced technology firm. The developers have assembled a team of experts in mathematical probability, mathematics education, learning theory and software design. They will do pilot and field tests in two school districts serving diverse populations, and have a good plan for using the feedback from these experiences. A formative evaluation will scrutinize the development process, while an independent summative evaluation will investigate the results of implementations in the field test sites with respect to student achievement. Commercial publishers have already expressed interest in the project.