Empirical Climate Prediction and Understanding Related to Hurricanes

这项研究福尔斯三个互补的研究领域，所有这些领域都与大西洋热带气旋和基于统计技术的扩展范围季节性飓风预测有关。这三个研究领域是：（1）改进对大西洋盆地飓风的扩展季节性预测;（2）改进对大西洋飓风活动的季节内（逐月）预测;（3）发展对美国飓风登陆和破坏的概率预测。应急管理人员、保险机构、媒体和公众利用PI的热带气旋预报。他的小组的预测将公众的注意力转向即将到来的飓风季节及其潜在的危险。此外，一些风险巨灾模型利用该集团的季节性预测作为确定建议保险费的一个因素。

This research falls into three complementary areas of study, all of which are related to Atlantic tropical cyclones and extended range seasonal hurricane prediction based on statistical techniques. The three study areas are: (1) Improvement of extended range seasonal Atlantic basin hurricane prediction; (2) Improvement of intraseasonal (month-to-month) prediction of Atlantic hurricane activity; (3) Development of probability forecasts for U.S. hurricane landfall and destruction.Broader Impacts. Emergency managers, insurance agencies, the media and the general public utilize the PI's tropical cyclone forecasts. His group's forecasts turn the public attention towards the upcoming hurricane season and its potential dangers. In addition, several risk catastrophe models utilize the group's seasonal forecast as a factor in determining suggested insurance premiums.