Clean Growth and Comparative Advantage

摘要近几十年来，可再生能源技术取得了重大进展。可再生能源成本的显著下降意味着，在世界大部分地区，新建太阳能和风能项目现在比继续支付化石燃料资产的发电成本来发电更便宜。随着能源使用方面相对优势的发展，区域和国家在具体部门的专门化可能随着能源成本的下降而改变。这些发展可能会影响整个全球生产网络。这项研究是一项重大的奋进，以跟踪和量化的影响，电力价格下降的增长，生产和贸易在全球和区域范围内。该项目旨在利用有关全球电网、能源资本和可再生资源的丰富数据，其规模在经济建模中前所未有。该项目的结果将对可再生电力技术的引进和分配产生重要影响，这与依赖化石燃料的系统有很大不同。该项目的另一个目标是制定一个成本效益框架，作为政策制定者和公众的路线图，评估能源技术创新对世界实现气候目标的能力的影响，该项目使用详细的颗粒数据，对可再生电力技术的引进和空间分布进行全面的宏观经济、跨国和区域分析。这些数据将来自高分辨率卫星图像和大规模开源网格制图项目。这些数据将被协调，以适合科学和经济建模，从而实现对世界能源系统的真正全球视角。这些信息将与一个新的空间增长框架相结合，该框架具有丰富的地理结构以及跨境电力和商品贸易的前瞻性能源采用决策。该研究旨在评估采用可再生能源将如何改变全球生产和贸易模式，因为不同行业的国家和地区具有专业化。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

AbstractThere has been significant progress in renewable energy technology in recent decades. The remarkable decline of renewable costs means that in much of the world, new construction of solar and wind projects is now cheaper than continuing to pay the generation costs of fossil fuel assets to produce electricity. As comparative advantage in energy use evolves, regional and country specialization in specific sectors could change as energy costs fall. These developments will likely affect the entire global production network. This research is a major endeavor to trace and quantify the implications of falling power prices for growth, production, and trade at both global and regional scale. The project aims to utilize rich data on global power grids, energy capital and renewable resources at a scale that has not been utilized before in economic modeling. The results of the project will have important implications for renewable electricity technology introduction and distribution, which is vastly different that the fossil-fuel dependent system. An additional aim of the project is to develop a cost benefit framework that will serve as a roadmap to policymakers and the public, assessing the effects of technological innovations in energy on the world’s ability to meet climate goals.The project represents a comprehensive macroeconomic, cross-country and regional analysis of renewable electricity technology introduction and spatial distribution, using detailed granular data. The data will be drawn from high-resolution satellite images and massive, open-source grid mapping projects. The data will be harmonized to make suitable for scientific and economic modeling, allowing a truly global view of the world energy system. This information will be combined with a new spatial growth framework featuring forward-looking decisions on energy adoption with a rich geographic structure, as well as cross-border trade in power and goods. The research aims to evaluate how the adoption of renewable energy will change global production and trade patterns given the specialization of countries and regions in different industries. The proposed theoretical framework is rich, yet ideally simple enough to be combined with earth system models that describe the complex interactions that lead to emissions and climate effects.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.