World Production Potential and Costs of Japonica Rice

本研究是一项跨学科研究，旨在调查目前世界水稻的总体产量、粳稻的生产/品种和销售、生产成本、水资源、天气条件和粳稻的潜在产量。这是继1991财政年度为同样目的进行的调查之后的又一次调查。因此，这项研究实际上持续了三年。在这三年中，选定的调查国家是美国、中华人民共和国、泰国、菲律宾、印度尼西亚、新加坡、澳大利亚、意大利、西班牙、法国和英国。通过调查发现，世界上有大量的粳稻生产潜力。目前有许多地区种植籼稻。那些已经种植水稻的地区，特别是位于北纬（或南纬）30至45度之间的地区，可能也适合种植粳稻。中国长江沿岸地区，目前约有2000万公顷。以及阿肯色州，那里有超过100万公顷的土地。适合水稻生产的地区是粳稻的主要潜力区。在纬度30和45度以外的地区，如泰国北部地区，约有200万公顷。水稻的生产也可能适合粳稻的生产。事实上，长江流域的水稻生产已经逐渐从籼稻转向粳稻。在阿肯色州，一位稻农近年来成功地种植了日本品种的粳稻。此外，在过去的几年里，日本品种在泰国北部地区的一些有限地区生产。因此，制约粳稻增产潜力的因素不是气候或土壤条件，而是经济条件。如果粳稻生产的收入远高于籼稻生产，那么全世界的粳稻产量将会增加。由于日本农作物歉收，日本从1993年秋季开始紧急进口大米。另外，日本宣布从1995年开始部分开放大米市场。到2000年，日本可能会进口70多万吨精米，成为世界上最大的大米进口国之一。如果由于日本的进口，世界上的粳稻市场价格上涨，那么粳稻的供应肯定会增加。少

This research was an interdisciplinary study and was conducted to investigate the current production of rice in general, japonica rice production/varieties and marketing, production costs, water resources, weather conditions and potential production of japonica rice in the world. This succeeded the one conducted for the same purpose during the 1991 fiscal year. Accordingly, the study was practically lasted for three years. Selected countries for investigation during the three years were the U.S.A., Peoples' Republic of China, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Australia, Italy, Spain, France, and the Great Britain.Through the investigation, it was found that there were enormous amount of areas for potential japonica rice production in the world. There are many areas where indica rice is currently produced. Those areas already growing rice and situated between north (or south) latitude 30 and 45 degrees, in particular, may be suitable for japonica rice also. Areas along th … More e Chang Jiang River in China, where there are currently about 20 millions ha. of rice production, and the State of Arkansas where there are over 1 million ha. suitable for rice production are major potential regions for japonica rice. Areas out side the latitude 30 and 45 degrees such as the Thai North regions where about 2 millions ha. of rice production going on may also be suitable for japonica rice production.In fact, rice production has been gradually shifted from indica to japonica in the Chang Jiang River area. In Arkansas, a rice farmer has been successfully producing Japanese variety japonica rice during the recent years. Also, Japanese varieties are produced in some limited areas in Thai North region during the last several years. Accordingly, the limiting factors of potential increase in japonica rice production are not climatic or soil situations but economic conditions. If incomes from japonica rice production are well above indica rice production, then japonica rice production will increase in the world.Japan's emergency rice imports started in the fall, 1993 because of Japan's crop failure.Meanwhile Japan declared to partially open its rice market starting in 1995. By the year 2000, Japan would possibly be importing over 700,000 metric tons of milled rice and be one of the largest rice importers in the world. If market prices of japonica rice in the world rise due to Japanese imports, then supply for japonica rice would certainly increase. Less