The Methodology of Ensuing Safety and Risk Assessment for Prevention of Marine Accidents Originating from Human Error

近年来，人为失误引起的船舶事故的系统可靠性分析的发展被认为是非常重要的。本研究包括以下三个部分，提出了预防人为错误引起的海上事故的安全和风险评估方法。(1)第一部分介绍了船舶系统功能设计中事故发生概率的分析方法。首先利用故障树对设计中的功能系统进行可靠性定性分析。其次，在功能系统中的人为错误的概率和设备故障的频率是决定通过使用的程度的忧虑，这是定义为类似于基于工程师的经验和独创性的明智的规模。第三，通过布尔逻辑计算，选择改进项目，降低事故风险 ...更多信息 功能系统中的可操作性。基于故障树分析和模糊理论，在计算中定量预测了采取对策的效果，并提出了在特定功能系统中采取适当对策降低风险有效性的预测方法，以及通过最小化总成本期望或背景风险来进行风险评估的方法。作为实例，应用该方法对防止船舶火灾中人员死亡的风险评估进行了研究。(2)针对海上火灾蔓延现象的复杂性和基于人为因素的疏散行为的不确定性，难以建立海上火灾发生时的安全疏散方法，提出了一种具有个体可视长度和避障能力的步行模型，用于预测海上火灾发生时的疏散行为.在此基础上，建立了突发事件中心理智能过程的数学模型，根据事故刺激的大小，在考虑心理行为中步行速度的降低和自我隔离的发生的情况下，模拟了人员的疏散运动。通过将该模型应用于一艘游轮的公共空间，验证了考虑人的心理行为因素的安全疏散系统的有效性，并可考虑降低烟雾层时人的步行速度降低和心理行为中自我隔离的发生，对疏散运动进行预测。疏散系统的测量风险指数定义通过使用烟雾扩散和疏散的同时模拟的结果。该风险指标可用于各种安全系统之间的比较，并以典型游轮公共空间为例验证了其有效性。(3)安全航行和货物管理的冗余系统旨在开发确保安全性和可靠性的功能装置。此外，系统设计的安全导航系统和可靠的货物装卸系统的方法，包括硬件和人为因素的可靠性，应该通过掌握人员的行为，在相关的模拟操作和人为错误的调查，希望建立。本文介绍了一种保证船舶现代化系统设计安全性和可靠性的方法。此外，提出了一种估计方法的人为错误的概率和设备的功能系统中的频率，通过使用的理解程度，这是定义为类似的感觉尺度的基础上熟练的船舶操作员的经验。作为一个应用实例，用本文提出的方法对新研制的自动化货物装卸系统进行了可靠性分析。少

The development of system reliability analysis of marine accidents originating from human error is regarded as being of major importance in recent years. This study, that consists of the following three parts, presents the methodology of ensuing safety and risk assessment for prevention of marine accidents originating from human error.(1) The first part presents an analytical method for the estimation of the incidence probability of accidents during the function design of marine systems. Firstly, the qualitative analysis of the reliability of the functional system under design is carried out using the fault tree (FT) . Next, the probability of human error and the frequency of device failure in the functional system are decided by using a degree of apprehensive, which is defined as similar to the sensible scale based on the experience and ingenuity of engineers. Thirdly, the selection of improved items are executed by the calculation using Boolian logic to reduce the risk of accident pr … More obability in the functional system. The effects of adapting countermeasures are predicted quantitatively in the calculation based on the fault tree analysis and the fuzzy theory.Furthermore, the prediction way of effectiveness to reduce the risk by suitable countermeasures in specified functional system, and the method of risk assessment by means of minimizing of the total cost expectation or the background risk are proposed. As a practical example, the risk evaluation analyses for preventing from the deaths in the marine fire are investigated using the proposed method.(2) It may be difficult to establish the methodology for safe evacuation in the case of outbreak of a marine fire, by originating in the intricacies of the spread phenomena and the uncertain behaviors of evacuation based on human factors without uniformity.Hence, the evacuation behaviors can be predicted by using the proposed walking model with individual capacity of visible length and avoidance for obstacles. Further, the mathematical model of psychological intelligence process in an emergency is contrived herein, in which the evacuation movement is simulated in the consideration of the decrease of walking speed and the occurrence of self-isolation in psychological action according to the magnitudes of accident stimulus. By applying these models to common spaces in a dinning cruise ship, taking account of the human factors with psychological action is rather valued in the safe evacuation system and the validity of the proposed models can be confirmed.The evacuation movement can be predicted considering the decrease of walking speed and the occurrence of self-isolation in psychological action with lowering smoke layer by the proposed method. The measured index of risk for the evacuation system is defined by using the results of a simultaneous simulation of smoke diffusion and evacuation. This risk index mat be used the comparison between various safety systems and its validity is confirmed using model of a common space in a typical cruise ship.(3) The redundancy system for safe navigation and cargo management be aimed at the development of functional devices ensuring safety and reliability. Moreover, the methodology of system design for the safe navigation system and reliable cargo handling system, consisted of reliability on hardware and human factors, should be desirably instituted by grasping the personnel behavior based on the associated in simulated operation and investigation of human errors. A methodology of ensuring safety and reliability for the design of ship modernizing system is described in this paper. Further, an estimation method on the probability of human error and the frequency of device in the functional system is proposed by using an apprehensive degree, which is defined as similar to the sense scale based on the experience of skilled ship operators. As a practical example, the reliability analysis on automatic cargo handling system developing newly are carried out using our proposed method. Less