Public Opinion and Public Policy in Post-Brexit Post-Pandemic Britain

如今，英国脱欧通常被认为已经尘埃落定。那些投票留欧的人（据说）已经适应了这个结果，工党和自由民主党都不愿意重新讨论这个问题，而英国政府则热衷于利用脱离欧盟单一市场和关税同盟所带来的“机会”。但在实践中，民调和调查数据显示，在英国应留在欧盟还是离开欧盟的问题上，选民的意见仍各占一半，他们往往对退欧迄今的后果表示怀疑，而且他们并不总是支持背离欧盟单一市场监管规则的提议。与此同时，在苏格兰和北爱尔兰，支持留在英国的人都有所下降，这两个地区的多数人都投了留欧票。与此同时，由于2019冠状病毒病大流行及其后果，加上乌克兰战争，英国脱欧的实施情况与2016年公投时截然不同，包括通货膨胀螺旋式上升、劳动力市场紧张和地缘战略环境变化，这些发展可能会影响选民对英国脱欧的最终判断。这些考虑表明，公众如何看待英国脱欧——以及2016年公投（目前实施的）将在多大程度上为英国与欧盟的关系问题提供持久解决方案——不应被视为理所当然。为了为有关这一主题的公众辩论提供信息，本项目将绘制和分析英国脱欧实施后主要公众态度和评估的趋势，并评估这些态度和评估可能受到(i) COVID-19大流行及其经济后果以及（ii）乌克兰战争的影响程度。它将检查特别是:(i)是否Brexit来被视为一个成功或失败的影响,如果有的话,这个评价对欧盟内部或外部的支持水平,(2)公众态度的一些监管政策选择对英国开放后退出欧盟,(3)在多大程度上Brexit和相关的“文化战争”问题可能继续影响方的选择,及(iv)苏格兰人们如何评估的比较结果,一方面，英国是英国的一部分，但不属于欧盟；另一方面，英国是一个独立的国家，但属于欧盟。这些主题将通过原始调查工作、对其他相关学术调查的重新分析以及整理和分析相关商业民意调查数据来进行。作为“变化中的欧洲中的英国”倡议的奖学金项目，该项目的主要受众是政策制定者、媒体和感兴趣的公众。为此目的，它的产出和分析将通过现有的两个网站，whatukthinks.org/eu和whatscotlandthinks.org，以及一个由更正式的学术出版物支持的公开演讲/网络研讨会、播客和媒体参与计划，方便地提供。

Brexit is now often presented as being done and dusted. Those who voted Remain have (it is said) accommodated themselves to the outcome, neither Labour nor the Liberal Democrats are keen to revisit the issue, while the UK government is keen to exploit the 'opportunities' that being outside the EU single market and customs union affords.Yet in practice, polling and survey data suggest that voters are still evenly divided on whether the UK should be inside or outside the EU, that they are often doubtful of its consequences to date, and that they are not always supportive of proposals for divergence from the regulatory rules of the EU single market. Meanwhile, support for remaining part of the UK has fallen in both Scotland and Northern Ireland, in both of which a majority voted Remain. At the same time, thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath, together with the Ukraine war, Brexit is being implemented in very different circumstances from those that pertained at the time of the 2016 referendum, including an inflationary spiral, a tight labour market and a changed geo-strategic environment, a development that may influence voters' eventual judgement of Brexit.These considerations suggest that how the public view Brexit - and thus the extent to which the 2016 referendum (as currently implemented) will provide a lasting resolution of the question of the UK's relationship with the EU - should not be taken for granted. With a view to informing public debate on the subject, this project will chart and analyse trends in key public attitudes and evaluations following the implementation of Brexit, and assess how far those attitudes and evaluations may have been affected by (i) the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic aftermath, and (ii) the Ukraine war. It will examine in particular:(i) whether Brexit comes to be regarded as a success or a failure and the impact, if any, this evaluation has on levels of support for being inside or outside the EU,(ii) public attitudes towards some of the regulatory policy choices open to the UK following its exit from the EU,(iii) to what extent Brexit and associated 'culture war' issues might continue to influence party choice, and(iv) how people in Scotland evaluate the comparative consequences of being, on the one hand, part of the UK and outside the EU versus, on the other, being an independent country and part of the EU.These topics will be pursued through original survey work, the reanalysis of other relevant academic surveys, and collating and analysing relevant commercial polling data. As a fellowship of 'The UK in a Changing Europe' initiative, the project's principal audiences are policy makers, the media, and the interested public. To that end, its outputs and analysis will be made readily available via two existing websites, whatukthinks.org/eu and whatscotlandthinks.org, and a programme of public presentations/webinars, podcasts, and media engagement, underpinned by more formal academic publications.