EVENT-LEVEL ANALYSIS OF EXPECTANCIES, ALCOHOL USE, AND CONSEQUENCES

摘要 在大学生中，酗酒、误用和由此产生的负面后果已经广泛存在。 有记录在案。尽管在理解和防止过度行为方面做出了重大努力并取得了最新进展 消费和相关危害，在关于病因和维护的文献中有相当大的差距 高风险的大学饮酒现象依然存在。先前的研究已经证明，与酒精相关的负面事件可能 促进改变饮酒行为、改变的动机和与饮酒相关的认知。这个 建议的研究将有助于理解年轻的成年大学生如何改变自我。 由于经历了负面后果。在本提案中，我们使用事件级别的视角来 检查预期、饮酒和后果之间的相互关系。使用交互式语音 回答(IVR)，400名大学生将报告他们的预期、饮酒和与酒精有关的情况 在一年中的四次两周间隔内每天三次的后果。通过使用每日报告 时间，我们可以确保预期、饮酒和后果之间的时间关系；最小化 回忆偏见；调查预期、饮酒和后果之间的相互关系；并检查 无论是人内还是人与人之间对饮酒和后果的影响。使用多层建模，我们 将(1)研究饮酒预期与饮酒之间的日常关系；(2)研究 预期、后果和饮酒随时间的双向影响；(3)检查 饮酒的直接后果会改变随后的预期，并随着时间的推移而饮酒；以及(4) 考察人与人之间的人际关系的时变和时变调节因素 期望值、饮酒量和后果。与自我改变相关的因素对 了解高风险饮酒的维持和波动，最终可能有助于 针对有后果风险但不寻求干预或干预的饮酒者的干预措施 治疗。

Abstract Alcohol use, misuse and resulting negative consequences among college students have been extensively documented. Despite substantial efforts and recent advances in understanding and preventing excessive consumption and related harm, considerable gaps in the literature regarding etiology and maintenance of high-risk college drinking remain. Prior research has documented that negative alcohol-related events can promote changes to drinking behavior, motivations for change, and cognitions related to drinking. The proposed study will help to understand how self-change might occur among young adult college students as a result of experienced negative consequences. In this proposal, we use an event-level perspective to examine the interrelationships of expectancies, drinking, and consequences. Using Interactive Voice Response (IVR), 400 college students will report on their expectancies, drinking, and alcohol-related consequences three times daily for four two-week intervals over one year. By using daily reports over time, we can ensure temporal relationships between expectancies, drinking, and consequences; minimize recall bias; investigate reciprocal relationships of expectancies, drinking and consequences; and examine both within- and between-person influences on drinking and consequences. Using multilevel modeling, we will (1) examine the daily relationships between alcohol expectancies and alcohol use; (2) study bidirectional influences of expectancies, consequences, and drinking over time; (3) examine whether the immediate consequences of drinking change subsequent expectancies and drinking over time; and (4) examine the time-varying and time-invarying moderators of the within-person relationships between expectancies, drinking, and consequences. The factors related to self-change are important for understanding the maintenance and fluctuations of high-risk drinking and may ultimately help inform interventions targeted to drinkers who are at risk for consequences but are not seeking intervention or treatment.