Forecasting population, species, and ecosystem vulnerability to global change

快速的全球变化继续向生态学家和保护生物学家提出一个根本性的挑战。处于保护工作重点的物种存在于由环境条件定义的生态系统中，这些环境条件与一个世纪前的环境条件在均值和方差上都有很大偏离。与此同时，我们预测物种对人为变化的反应轨迹的能力仍然受到主要了解机械过程的小尺度与与种群动态、物种状况和生态系统过程相关的广泛的时空尺度之间的不连续性的限制。我的研究项目专注于这些理论和应用挑战的交汇点。我利用跨越生物组织规模和水平的调查，以提高对不同环境应激源何时何地推动物种持久性、种群动态和生物多样性模式变化的预测。为此，我的建议解决了一个根本性的问题，即全球变化的起因和后果跨越了个体种群的动态，从物种分布的范围内的变化到生态系统的弹性。我建议开发和推进一个综合框架，以改进对全球变化的人口、物种和生态系统脆弱性的预测，以支持更有效的保护行动。为此，我目前的提议涉及两个相互关联的短期目标。我将从生活史理论、生物地理学和系统发育学的角度对两栖动物的回溯性衰退进行评估，并以山地两栖动物为测试案例，梳理出人为气候变化影响的内在尺度依赖性。除了推进这些基本问题外，这项研究计划还将为研究生和本科生以及田野生态学和尖端定量方法方面的技术人员提供宝贵的培训，并有助于加拿大履行保护生物多样性的国内和国际承诺的智力能力。这项研究计划将促进我们对物种和种群对全球变化反应的机械和理论理解，并为加拿大淡水生态系统及其他地区的保护规划和自然资源管理决策提供直接支持。

Rapid global change continues to present ecologists and conservation biologists with a fundamental challenge. Species at the focus of conservation efforts exist within ecosystems defined by environmental conditions that deviate substantially in both mean and variance from conditions a century ago. At the same time our ability to predict the trajectory of species responses to anthropogenic change remains limited by the discontinuity between the small scales at which mechanistic processes are primarily understood and the broad spatial and temporal scales relevant to population dynamics, species status, and ecosystem processes. My research program is focused at the intersection of these theoretical and applied challenges. I draw on investigations across scales and levels of biological organization to improve predictions of when and where different environmental stressors will drive shifts in species persistence, population dynamics, and patterns of biodiversity. To this end, my proposal addresses a fundamental question of the causes and consequences of global change at scales spanning the dynamics of individual populations, to range-wide changes in species distributions and the resilience of ecosystems. I propose to develop and advance an integrative framework to improve forecasts of population, species, and ecosystem vulnerability to global change in support of more effective conservation actions. To this end, my current proposal addresses two linked short-term objectives. I will evaluate retrospective amphibian declines through the lens of life history theory, biogeography, and phylogenetics, and I will tease apart the inherent scale-dependency of anthropogenic climate change impacts using montane amphibians as test case. In addition to advancing these fundamental questions, this research program will also importantly provide valuable training for graduate and undergraduate students, and technicians in field ecology and cutting-edge quantitative methods, and contribute to Canada's intellectual capacity to meet both domestic and international commitments to preserving biodiversity. This research program will advance our mechanistic and theoretical understanding of species and population responses to global change, as well as provide direct support for conservation planning and natural resource management decisions in Canada’s freshwater ecosystems and beyond.