Forecasting population, species, and ecosystem vulnerability to global change

快速的全球变化继续给生态学家和保护生物学家带来根本性的挑战。保护工作的重点物种存在于由环境条件定义的生态系统中，这些环境条件与一个世纪前的平均和差异都有很大差异。与此同时，我们预测物种对人为变化的响应轨迹的能力仍然受到主要了解机械过程的小尺度与与种群动态、物种状态和生态系统过程相关的大时空尺度之间的不连续性的限制。我的研究项目集中在这些理论和应用挑战的交叉点上。我利用跨尺度和生物组织水平的调查来改进对何时何地不同环境压力因素将驱动物种持久性、种群动态和生物多样性模式变化的预测。为此，我的建议提出了一个基本问题，即全球变化的原因和后果，从个体种群的动态变化到物种分布的大范围变化和生态系统的恢复力。我建议开发和推进一个综合框架，以改进人口、物种和生态系统对全球变化的脆弱性预测，以支持更有效的保护行动。为此目的，我目前的建议涉及两个相互关联的短期目标。我将通过生活史理论、生物地理学和系统发育学的视角来评估两栖动物数量的下降，并将以山地两栖动物作为测试案例，梳理出人为气候变化影响的内在尺度依赖性。除了推进这些基本问题外，该研究项目还将为研究生和本科生以及野外生态学和前沿定量方法的技术人员提供有价值的培训，并为加拿大的智力能力做出贡献，以满足保护生物多样性的国内和国际承诺。该研究项目将促进我们对物种和种群对全球变化响应的机制和理论理解，并为加拿大淡水生态系统及其他地区的保护规划和自然资源管理决策提供直接支持。

Rapid global change continues to present ecologists and conservation biologists with a fundamental challenge. Species at the focus of conservation efforts exist within ecosystems defined by environmental conditions that deviate substantially in both mean and variance from conditions a century ago. At the same time our ability to predict the trajectory of species responses to anthropogenic change remains limited by the discontinuity between the small scales at which mechanistic processes are primarily understood and the broad spatial and temporal scales relevant to population dynamics, species status, and ecosystem processes. My research program is focused at the intersection of these theoretical and applied challenges. I draw on investigations across scales and levels of biological organization to improve predictions of when and where different environmental stressors will drive shifts in species persistence, population dynamics, and patterns of biodiversity. To this end, my proposal addresses a fundamental question of the causes and consequences of global change at scales spanning the dynamics of individual populations, to range-wide changes in species distributions and the resilience of ecosystems. I propose to develop and advance an integrative framework to improve forecasts of population, species, and ecosystem vulnerability to global change in support of more effective conservation actions. To this end, my current proposal addresses two linked short-term objectives. I will evaluate retrospective amphibian declines through the lens of life history theory, biogeography, and phylogenetics, and I will tease apart the inherent scale-dependency of anthropogenic climate change impacts using montane amphibians as test case. In addition to advancing these fundamental questions, this research program will also importantly provide valuable training for graduate and undergraduate students, and technicians in field ecology and cutting-edge quantitative methods, and contribute to Canada's intellectual capacity to meet both domestic and international commitments to preserving biodiversity. This research program will advance our mechanistic and theoretical understanding of species and population responses to global change, as well as provide direct support for conservation planning and natural resource management decisions in Canada's freshwater ecosystems and beyond.