Future species of Anthropocene seas: understanding global patterns from metabolic processes

我的长期目标是了解哪些海洋物种能在人类世幸存下来。我的前提是，物种的灭绝风险取决于种群增长率与捕捞死亡率的相互作用。简单地说，如果一个物种的捕鱼死亡率大于其种群更替的速度，即种群增长率，那么这个物种就会灭绝。这种框架导致了两个基本的生态问题。首先，呼吸代谢如何塑造全球生命史和人口增长率的模式？其次，哪些地方的捕鱼死亡率高于物种的种群增长率？我们对全球生物多样性的了解大多来自于人们熟知的陆生脊椎动物。鲨鱼为许多已建立的理论提供了一个独立的水生测试，我2013年获得的NSERC发现和加速器资助使我能够扩展到两个新的研究主题：呼吸代谢和全球生物多样性模式。******我的综合研究项目现在跨越了生命史，从有机体代谢过程到人口动态的全球模式，我定位于利用两个关键机会。第一个机会是，我现在有必要的组件来测试许多宏观生态和宏观进化的假设，以鲨鱼为例，包括：一个古老的系统发育，竞争分布图和IUCN灭绝风险估计所有物种，再加上一个快速增长的生命史和生态特征数据库（SharkTraits）。其次，我成功地剖析了物种对气候变化反应的代谢基础，我准备应用这些技术来了解过度捕捞和灭绝风险。******我将连接三个目前不相关但相关的理论，以发展人口增长和灭绝风险的代谢生物地理学理论，即：(1)保利的鳃-氧气限制理论，(2)索斯伍德的生态模板，(3)克拉克的灭绝风险经济贴现理论。我提议的核心内容涵盖了生命史——从呼吸代谢到全球模式——以及人口增长率与过度捕捞之间的交集，这是由经济折扣驱动的。******我的长期目标将通过四个短期目标来实现，了解***(1)鳃影响代谢率，***(2)鳃影响生活史和人口增长率，***(3)鳃（和环境）塑造人口增长的空间格局，以及***(4)人口增长率与渔业死亡率造成灭绝风险相交。******我的工作对加拿大有显著的好处，产生了至少60个出版物，加上17个高就业率的HQP，从呼吸生理学到全球可持续性的理论和经验，从一个拥有世界级记录的实验室提供和交流影响社会决策的重要科学。

My long-term goal is to understand which marine species will survive the Anthropocene. My premise is that species' extinction risk depends upon the interaction of population growth rates with fishing mortality. Put simply, a species will go extinct if the rate of fishing mortality is greater than the rate at which the population can replace itself the population growth rate. This framing leads to two fundamental ecological questions. First, how does respiratory metabolism shape the pattern of life histories and population growth rates across the globe? Second, where are the places where fishing mortality is greater than species' population growth rates? Much of our understanding of global biodiversity comes from well-trodden terrestrial vertebrate exemplars. Sharks offer an independent aquatic test of many established theories, and my 2013 NSERC Discovery and Accelerator grants enabled me to branch into two new research themes: respiratory metabolism and global biodiversity patterns. ******My integrated research program now spans life histories from organismal metabolic processes to global patterns in population dynamics, and I am positioned to exploit two key opportunities. The first opportunity is that I now have the requisite components to test many macroecological and macroevolutionary hypotheses, using sharks as an exemplar, including: a dated phylogeny, compete distribution maps and IUCN extinction risk estimates for all species, plus a rapidly growing database of life history and ecological traits (SharkTraits). Second, I have successfully dissected the metabolic basis of the climate-change responses of species, and I am poised to apply these techniques to understand overfishing and extinction risk. ******I will bridge three currently unconnected, but related, theories to develop a metabolic biogeography theory of population growth and extinction risk, namely: (1) Pauly's Gill-Oxygen Limitation Theory, (2) Southwood's Ecological Template, and (3) Clarke's economic Discounting Theory of extinction risk. The core of my proposal spans life histories -- from respiratory metabolism to global patterns -- and the intersection of population growth rates with overfishing, as driven by economic discounting. ******My long-term goal will be realized through four short-term objectives, to understand how:***(1) gills influence metabolic rates, ***(2) gills influence life histories and population growth rates,***(3) gills (and environment) shape spatial patterns of population growth, and***(4) population growth rate intersects with fishing mortality causing extinction risk.******My work has significant benefits for Canada, producing at least 60 publications, plus 17 highly employable HQP with theoretical and empirical experience bridging from respiratory physiology to global sustainability from a lab with a world-class record of providing and communicating salient science that shapes societal decisions.