Model Chance: A Technology-rich Environment for Learning Probability

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This project will develop and publish probability modeling software along with supplementary curriculum materials for middle school. The project will draw on the research and personnel of several current and recently completed projects that have been researching how students reason and learn about probability through a modeling approach. The computer models developed would expand the possibilities for student learning about stochastic processes. Three major products will result from this project: (i) commercially developed probability simulation software; (ii) published replacement units for traditional texts, using computer simulation to teach probability; and (iii) a data bank of assessment items for researchers and classroom teachers, to evaluate the development of the big ideas in probability. Development of the materials will proceed using 'backward design'. The actual programming will be done under a subcontract to an experienced technology firm. The developers have assembled a team of experts in mathematical probability, mathematics education, learning theory and software design. They will do pilot and field tests in two school districts serving diverse populations, and have a good plan for using the feedback from these experiences. A formative evaluation will scrutinize the development process, while an independent summative evaluation will investigate the results of implementations in the field test sites with respect to student achievement. Commercial publishers have already expressed interest in the project.