Model Chance: A Technology-rich Environment for Learning Probability

本计画将开发并出版机率模拟软体沿着与中学课程教材。 该项目将借鉴几个当前和最近完成的项目的研究和人员，这些项目一直在研究学生如何通过建模方法推理和学习概率。 开发的计算机模型将扩大学生学习随机过程的可能性。该项目将产生三个主要产品：（i）商业开发的概率模拟软件;（ii）出版的传统教材替代单元，使用计算机模拟教授概率;（iii）供研究人员和课堂教师使用的评估项目数据库，以评估概率中重大思想的发展。 材料的开发将使用“逆向设计”进行。实际的编程将在一家有经验的技术公司的指导下完成。 开发人员组建了一个数学概率，数学教育，学习理论和软件设计专家团队。 他们将在两个为不同人群服务的学区进行试点和实地测试，并有一个很好的计划来利用这些经验的反馈。 形成性评价将审查发展过程，而独立的总结性评价将调查在实地测试地点实施学生成绩的结果。 商业出版商已经表示对该项目感兴趣。

This project will develop and publish probability modeling software along with supplementary curriculum materials for middle school. The project will draw on the research and personnel of several current and recently completed projects that have been researching how students reason and learn about probability through a modeling approach. The computer models developed would expand the possibilities for student learning about stochastic processes. Three major products will result from this project: (i) commercially developed probability simulation software; (ii) published replacement units for traditional texts, using computer simulation to teach probability; and (iii) a data bank of assessment items for researchers and classroom teachers, to evaluate the development of the big ideas in probability. Development of the materials will proceed using 'backward design'. The actual programming will be done under a subcontract to an experienced technology firm. The developers have assembled a team of experts in mathematical probability, mathematics education, learning theory and software design. They will do pilot and field tests in two school districts serving diverse populations, and have a good plan for using the feedback from these experiences. A formative evaluation will scrutinize the development process, while an independent summative evaluation will investigate the results of implementations in the field test sites with respect to student achievement. Commercial publishers have already expressed interest in the project.