活断層の活動履歴に基づく地震発生確率と地震動期待値の算定法

基于活动断层活动历史的地震发生概率和地震预期值计算方法

• 批准号: 06858016
• 负责人: 鈴木 康弘
• 金额: $ 0.58万
• 依托单位: Aichi Prefectural University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Encouragement of Young Scientists (A)
• 财政年份: 1994
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1994 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-06858016/
• 关键词: 活断層; 地震; 確率; 地震動; 期待値; 直下型地震

兵庫県南部地震をきっかけに,活断層が引き起こす地震対策が大きな社会問題となっている.被害軽減策を立案する上にもこのような地震の発生を確率論的に評価することが急務である.本研究は,活断層が起因する地震の発生確率と,その際に生じる地震動の期待値を任意の対象地点で推定する方法論を確立することを目的とした.本研究は,(1)活断層による地震発生確率の推定,(2)断層からの距離と地震動の大きさの関係(距離減衰)の定式化,(3)地震動の期待値算定とその適用の3段階からなる.(1)の地震発生確率は,活断層の活動履歴から仮定される周期性を統計解析し,さらに最終活動期からの経過時間を考慮して補正した.(2)距離減衰式は,国内外の地震記録と,地震学,地震工学など他方面の研究成果を整理して一般化した.最後に(3)の地震動期待値を試算し,その意義並びに適用法を検討した.その結果として,上記の手順による活断層の地震発生予測とそれに伴う周辺地域での地震動予測は,今後行われる建造物の耐震設計基準の見直しに大きく貢献できることがわかった.この成果は基礎研究に立脚しながらも応用的な意義が高いので,今後は来年度開かれる ICASP (International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability)において発表することとした.現時点において既存の活断層調査および地震動観測記録は,対策に結びつくだけの精度を有していないことも明らかになった.この点をどのように補正・修正していくかは今後に残された大きな課題である.

The earthquake in the south of the arsenal has caused serious social problems and social problems. The case of the victim was put on file, and there was a discussion on the probability of earthquake health and emergency. In this study, the cause of the activity, the cause of the earthquake, the survival rate of the earthquake, the expectation of earthquake activity, the location of the image, the presumption method, the purpose of the earthquake, the cause of the earthquake, the cause of the earthquake, the occurrence rate of the earthquake, the expectation of the earthquake, the location of the image, the presumption method, the purpose, the cause, the occurrence rate, the location, the location, the presumption method and the purpose of the earthquake were determined. In this study, (1) the estimation of the probability of earthquake occurrence, (2) the determination of the distance between earthquake activity and earthquake, (3) the expectation of earthquake activity to calculate the occurrence rate of earthquake, (1) the probability of earthquake survival, and the analysis of periodic statistics of earthquake activity. During the most active period, the time limit test is correct. (2) long-distance decline model, domestic and foreign seismology, seismology, seismology and other aspects of research results to collate and generalize. At the end of the day, (3) the earthquake is expected to be calculated, and the usage is reasonable. The results show that the earthquake was caused by the earthquake in the area around the weather, and now the base level of the seismic design of the building and construction equipment will be improved. The results of this study are based on the study of the meaning and significance of the research results. We will start to introduce ICASP (International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability) information tables in the coming year. There is an active cut-off test in time, and there is an accuracy in the accuracy of the test, and the accuracy of the test is accurate. Please note that you are in the process of correcting your problems in the future.

项目成果

by SUZUKI Yasuhiro,MATSUO: "A probabillstic estimation of the expected accelerations of earthquake motion by inland active faults and its application to earthquake engineering" proceedings of ICASP7. (accepted). (1995)

作者：SUZUKI Yasuhiro、MATSUO：“内陆活动断层地震运动预期加速度的概率估计及其在地震工程中的应用”ICASP7 论文集。