Develop An Evacuation Management Decision Support System

自1900年的加尔维斯顿飓风以来，探测、预警和疏散系统的改进减少了美国自然灾害造成的生命损失。如果不采取迅速有效的措施，灾害易发地区的人口增长很可能扭转这一趋势。尽管人口增长，但抗风险的土地利用和建筑施工实践可能有助于遏制生命损失，但实施这些措施存在经济和政治障碍。因此，需要提高疏散受威胁人口的能力，本研究项目通过开发疏散管理决策支持系统来满足这一需要，该系统帮助政府官员监测灾害的发生，并确定何时何地开始疏散。将使用多项调查构建一个关于警告/准备时间、合规/自发疏散率、疏散路线利用率、风险区居民和临时人员（特别是商务和旅游旅客）的疏散成本以及疏散对商业的经济影响的大型数据库。关于预警和准备时间、遵守率和自发疏散率以及疏散路线利用率的数据很少;文献中缺乏关于疏散成本（而不是灾害影响造成的损失）的数据。该数据库将为EMDSS提供信息，为公职人员提供应对飓风等灾害的支持，并帮助他们在时间限制和不确定性的情况下平衡公共安全威胁与疏散成本。通过收集和分析推进理论灾害研究的数据，将达到有价值的学科目标。此外，将社会心理学理论与交通规划理论相结合，开发出更完善的疏散时间估算模型，并与家庭经济学和企业经济学理论相结合，开发出疏散成本模型，从而发挥重要的跨学科功能。这些观点将与决策分析和决策支持系统的概念相结合，以产生EMDSS。更广泛的社会效用将通过技术的重大进步来支持疏散决策。这项工作将增加价值，并利用危险的脆弱性分析和疏散规划工作所进行的减少灾害恢复中心为德克萨斯州州长的应急管理司（DEM）超过二十年。&这种与运营机构的密切关系在大学的危害/灾害研究中心中是独一无二的。HRRC和DEM之间的关系提供了一个无与伦比的机会，用户输入到软件设计和加速技术转让给国家和地方应急管理人员。这项研究将与台湾国家减灾科技计划（NAPHM）的人员协调，他们有兴趣合作将EMDSS扩展到山体滑坡和内陆洪水的疏散。减灾恢复中心与NAPHM签订了协议备忘录，促进了两个中心之间的合作交流。最后，研究生将通过参与调查开发，数据收集和EMDSS开发和评估而受益。&将这一材料纳入调查人员的环境危害管理课程（特别是关于灾害应对规划的课程）和未来版本的教科书《社区应急规划的行为基础》，将使更多的研究生受益。该项目将雇用代表性不足群体的成员，特别是来自发展中国家的妇女和学生

Since the Galveston hurricane of 1900, improved systems for detection, warning, and evacuation have decreased the loss of life from natural hazards in the United States. Population growth in hazard prone areas is likely to reverse this trend unless prompt and effective measures are taken. Hazard-resistant land use and building construction practices could help to contain loss of life despite population growth, but there are economic and political barriers to implementing them. Improvements in the ability to evacuate threatened populations will thus be needed.This research project addresses this need by developing an Evacuation Management Decision Support System (EMDSS) to assist public officials in monitoring a hazard's onset and determining when and where to initiate evacuations. A large data base on warning/preparation times, compliance/spontaneous evacuation rates, evacuation route utilization, and evacuation costs for both risk area residents and transients (especially business and tourist travelers), and economic impacts to business due to evacuations will be constructed using multiple surveys. Data on warning and preparation times, compliance and spontaneous evacuation rates, and evacuation route utilization are sparse; data on evacuation costs (as opposed to losses from disaster impact) are lacking in the literature. This database will feed the EMDSS to provide public officials support in facing hazards, such as hurricanes and help them balance the threat to public safety against evacuation costs under time constraints and uncertainty. Valuable disciplinary goals will be reached through the collection and analysis of data that advance theoretical disaster research. In addition, the project will perform a major interdisciplinary function by integrating social psychological theories with those from transportation planning to develop an improved evacuation time estimation model, and with theories from household and business economics to develop an evacuation cost model. These perspectives will be integrated with concepts from decision analysis and decision support systems to produce the EMDSS. Broader social utility will result through significant advances in technology to support evacuation decisions. This work will add value to and leverage the hazard vulnerability analysis and evacuation planning work performed by the Hazard Reduction & Recovery Center for the Texas Governor's Division of Emergency Management (DEM) for over twenty years. This close relationship with an operational agency is unique among university-based hazard/disaster research centers. The relationship between HRRC and DEM provides an unparalleled opportunity for user input into software design and accelerated technology transfer to state and local emergency managers. The research will be coordinated with personnel from the Taiwanese National Science and Technology Program for Hazard Mitigation (NAPHM), who are interested in collaborating in the extending the EMDSS to evacuations from landslides and inland flooding. The Hazard Reduction & Recovery Center has a Memorandum of Agreement with NAPHM that has promoted cooperative exchanges between the two centers.Finally, graduate students will benefit by their involvement in survey development, data collection, and EMDSS development and evaluation. A broader group of graduate students will benefit from inclusion of this material in the investigators' environmental hazard management courses (especially the one on disaster response planning) and in a future edition of the textbook, Behavioral Foundations of Community Emergency Planning. The project will employ members of under-represented groups, especially women and students from developing countries