Hazards SEES Type 1: Persistent Volcanic Crises in the USA: From Precursors to Resilience

该项目汇集了一个新的研究团队：1）量化和减少我们美国活火山的物理和社会/行为数据集的不确定性; 2）分析火山危机期间决策的复杂过程，以及3）利用贝叶斯方法来科普这些事件期间不完整，有时相互矛盾的决策输入。该项目将开始美国地质调查局火山灾害计划与七个学术机构之间的新的大规模合作。该项目的目标是改善与美国不安分的、具有潜在危险的活火山的关系。中度至大型火山爆发不常见，但持续时间长，危害多，后果严重。它们承载着大量的火山学、工程学、数学、社会、规划和经济问题，沿着着所有类型数据的高度不确定性。在大型地质灾害中，它们几乎是独一无二的，因为它们之前有几周或几个月的明显可识别的前兆，这些前兆提供了成功的早期干预的可能性。因此，火山爆发的影响应该是所有重大自然灾害中最容易减轻的。然而，火山灾害造成的损失往往与母火山爆发的规模不成比例。

This project brings together a new research team to: 1) quantify and reduce uncertainties in physical and social/behavioral data sets for our active United States volcanoes; 2) analyze the complex processes of decision-making during volcanic crises, and 3) utilize Bayesian approaches to cope with incomplete, sometimes contradictory inputs into decision-making during these events. This project will begin a new, large collaboration between the Volcanic Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey and seven academic institutions.The goal of this project is to improve the relationship with restless, potentially dangerous active volcanoes in the United States. Moderate to large volcanic eruptions are infrequent but high-consequence events of long duration and with multiple hazards. They carry a host of volcanological, engineering, mathematical, societal, planning, and economic problems, along with very high levels of uncertainty in all types of data. Amongst large geological hazards, they are almost unique in being preceded by weeks or months of clearly recognizable precursors which offer the potential for successful early interventions. The impacts of volcanic eruptions should be, for this reason, amongst the easiest to mitigate of all the great natural hazards. Nevertheless, the costs of volcanic disasters are often out of proportion to the magnitude of the parent eruptions.