RAPID: Attitudes and beliefs in Russian-supported 'de facto' states and Eastern Ukraine in the wake of the Crimean annexation

该项目旨在科学地研究前苏联争议地区的公众舆论，以解决国际关系和比较政治中的重要理论问题，并为美国决策者提供对美国安全利益至关重要的信息。乌克兰最近发生的事件——基辅的暴力抗议、亚努科维奇政府的倒台、亲西方临时政权的成立，以及俄罗斯对克里米亚半岛的迅速吞并——已经改变了欧洲的政治版图，并深刻地挑战了苏联解体后达成的地缘政治解决方案。很多人猜测，乌克兰东部强烈的俄罗斯人地区（特别是顿涅茨克和哈尔科夫的大州）和附近的后苏联分裂主义“事实上的”国家（阿布哈兹、南奥塞梯和德涅斯特河沿岸）是俄罗斯扩张主义未来的潜在目标。把所有这些地方都称为“亲俄”是过于简单化了。俄罗斯吞并克里米亚可能创造了克里姆林宫所希望的“新现实”，但目前尚不清楚，这些事实上的国家和乌克兰传统上被视为“亲俄”地区的居民，是如何看待新的地缘政治背景及其不确定性的。记录和分析冲突地区这些不断演变的态度是该项目的研究目标。知识价值：最近发生的事件使关于国际体系的三个重要研究问题变得更加突出。第一个问题涉及冷战后欧洲解决方案合法性面临的地缘政治挑战。在上世纪70年代关于战后欧洲边界不应改变的协议破裂之后，后苏联事实上的国家是否会被俄罗斯“集结”起来？其次，当代地缘政治事件正将人们的注意力重新集中到正在进行的关于国际关系中领土和主权的智力辩论的至关重要性上。近几十年来，已经建立了20多个事实上的国家。乌克兰目前的政治危机，以及随之而来的有关俄罗斯化人口占主导地位的东部各州未来领土地位的问题，提供了一个机会，可以通过这些地区居民的观点来研究可能的领土修改。第三个广泛的研究主题是，尽管俄罗斯的行动在联合国大会上可能不具有合法性，但它们似乎在俄罗斯和克里米亚得到了相当大的民众支持。在为建立“国家”而努力了二十年之后，事实上的国家和类似的少数民族地区的居民是否愿意放弃名义上的国家身份，以获得一个新的国家身份？为了回答这些问题，主要调查人员将与俄罗斯同事合作，在五个地区（阿布哈兹、南奥塞梯和德涅斯特河沿岸三个事实上的州，以及乌克兰东部的顿涅茨克和哈尔科夫两个州）进行大规模有代表性的民意调查，以记录和分析乌克兰政府危机和随后吞并克里米亚之后的当前态度。更广泛的影响：2014年头几个月的事件动摇了人们对俄罗斯遵守冷战后协议、尊重后苏联国家领土完整的假设。美国的重点是确保乌克兰继续向成功的治理过渡，并支持乌克兰、格鲁吉亚和摩尔多瓦重新控制领土的努力。后苏联事实上的国家在促进国家认同和国家内部合法性方面相当成功。考虑到这一点，这些领土上的社区是否有被俄罗斯吞并的一致愿望根本就不清楚，尽管普遍的态度是强烈亲俄的。该项目将通过获取有关乌克兰事实上的国家和名义上的亲俄地区的现状、其与本国人口的合法性水平、与俄罗斯接触的程度和性质、民众接受领土和政治变化的意愿、种族间社会距离的相对水平以及边境互动条件的信息，为美国的外交政策提供关键信息。

The project is designed to scientifically study public opinion in contested areas of the former Soviet Union to address important theoretical questions in international relations and comparative politics, and to inform US policymakers on matters crucial to US security interests.Recent events in Ukraine -- violent protests in Kyiv, the collapse of the Yanukovych government, installation of an interim pro-Western regime, and the rapid annexation of the Crimean peninsula by Russia-- have altered Europe's political map and profoundly challenged the geopolitical settlement agreed after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Speculation abounds that the strongly Russophone regions of eastern Ukraine (specifically, the large oblasts of Donetsk and Kharkiv) and nearby post-Soviet separatist "de facto" states (Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria) are potential future targets for Russian expansionism. To term all these places "pro-Russian" is an over-simplification. Russia's annexation of Crimea may have created what the Kremlin hopes are "new realities" on the ground but it is not clear how the new geopolitical context and its uncertainties are viewed by both residents in these de facto states and in regions of Ukraine traditionally held to be "pro-Russian". Documenting and analyzing these evolving attitudes in conflict regions is the project's research goal.Intellectual Merit: Three important research questions about the international system have been thrown into sharp relief by recent events. The first concerns the geopolitical challenge to the legitimacy of the post-Cold War settlement in Europe. In the wake of a rupture from the 1970s agreement that post-war European boundaries should not be altered, are post-Soviet de facto states about to be "gathered up" by Russia? Second, contemporary geopolitical events are re-focusing attention on the crucial importance of ongoing intellectual debates about territory and sovereignty in international relations. Over twenty de facto states have been created in recent decades. The current political crisis in Ukraine and its attendant questions about the future territorial status of its eastern oblasts that are dominated by a Russified population offers an opportunity to examine a possible territorial modification through the views of the residents in these regions. A third broad research topic is, while Russia's actions may not enjoy legitimacy in the UN General Assembly, they appear to enjoy considerable popular support within Russia and Crimea. After working strenuously for two decades to establish "stateness", are residents of de facto states and similar minority regions willing to abandon their nominal state identity to acquire a new one? To answer these questions, the Principal Investigators, in collaboration with Russian colleagues, will conduct large representative public opinion surveys in five regions (three de facto states of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria, and two oblasts, Donetsk and Kharkiv, in eastern Ukraine) to document and analyze current attitudes in the wake of the Ukrainian government crisis and subsequent Crimea annexation.Broader Impacts: Events over the first months of 2014 have shaken assumptions about Russia's adherence to post-Cold War agreements to respect the territorial integrity of post-Soviet states. The US focus is to ensure the continued transition to successful governance in Ukraine and support Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova in their efforts to reclaim control of territories. Post-Soviet de facto states are quite successful in promoting state identity and internal state legitimacy. Given this, it is not at all clear that communities in these territories have uniform aspirations for annexation by Russia, though prevalent attitudes are strongly pro-Russia. The project will provide critical information for US foreign policy by acquiring information about current conditions inside de facto states and nominally pro-Russian regions of Ukraine, their level of legitimacy with their own populations, the extent and nature of their contacts with Russia, the willingness of the populations to accept territorial and political changes, the relative level of inter-ethnic social distances, and the conditions of border interactions.