DMUU: Climate and Energy Decision Making

这个合作研究小组将开发工具，帮助决策者解决能源和其他与环境有关的决策问题；发展和展示新的理论和跨学科的方法；并进行高度跨学科的研究，将行为和决策科学与工程和其他技术分析相结合。为了减轻极端事件等环境变化的负面影响，能源系统必须从根本上改变目前的碳密集型形式。该研究将解决能源系统成本效益转型的挑战和潜在解决方案，以及该系统未来不同途径的可能后果。这个合作小组位于卡内基梅隆大学，包括来自其他11个机构的研究人员。合作小组将(1)在领先的科学和工程期刊上发表研究成果；(2)向能源和环境相关的决策者提供简要建议或其他协助；(3)培养跨学科的博士研究生。此外，研究人员将利用项目的最后一年准备一本书，总结这个合作小组所获得的结果。拟议工作的第一部分将探讨公众对空气污染和温室气体的认识。它还将探讨公众对过渡到一个由广泛的技术和战略组合组成的未来能源系统所涉及的问题的理解。公众理解的研究和改进基于事实的传播策略的发展将建立在“心智模型”方法的基础上。拟议工作的第二部分将涉及评估可能：(1)促进或阻碍能源系统转型的技术和战略；(2)开发更多安全、清洁、经济、可靠的能源；(3)提高能源系统的安全性和效率；(4)促进技术、组织、监管和公共政策方面的创新。以转变能源系统为名的短期战略可能不利于长期进展（例如，关闭清洁核电站，因为目前天然气价格低廉，或发展对天然气的过度依赖）。在拟议工作的第三部分中开展的活动将查明这些潜在问题，并探讨各种战略，以尽量减少在未来出现阻碍继续取得进展的情况下陷入困境的机会。分析与促进能源系统的更有效和更具成本效益的转变有关的技术和管理问题将建立在一系列工程经济和政策评估工具的基础上。该合作小组项目由美国国家科学基金会社会、行为和经济科学理事会通过其不确定决策制定（DMUU）资助机会支持。

This collaborative research group will develop tools to help decision makers address energy and other environmentally related decision problems; develop and demonstrate new theory and interdisciplinary methods; and conduct highly interdisciplinary research that merges behavioral and decision science with engineering and other technical analysis. To mitigate the negative consequences of environmental change, such as extreme events, the energy system will have to be fundamentally transformed from its current carbon-intensive form. The research will address challenges and potential solutions for a cost-effective transition of the energy system and the likely consequences of different pathways for the future of that system. This collaborative group is based at Carnegie Mellon University and includes researchers from eleven other institutions. The collaborative group will (1) publish results in leading scientific and engineering journals; (2) brief and otherwise assist a wide range of energy and environmentally-related decision makers; and (3) educate interdisciplinary PhD students. In addition, the investigators will use the final year of the project to prepare a book that summarizes results that have been obtained by this collaborative group.A first part of the proposed work will explore public understanding of air pollution and greenhouse gases. It also will explore public understanding of what is involved in making the transition to a future energy system composed of a broad portfolio of technologies and strategies. Research on public understanding and the development of strategies to improve fact-based communication will build upon "mental model" methods. A second part of the proposed work will involve the assessment of technologies and strategies that could: (1) facilitate or impede the transition of the energy system; (2) develop more sources of energy that are safe, clean, affordable, and secure; (3) increase the security and efficiency of the energy system; and (4) facilitate innovation in both technology and in organizations, regulation, and public policy. Strategies pursued in the short term in the name of transforming the energy system could be detrimental to longer-term progress (for example, shutting down clean nuclear power plants because, at the moment, natural gas is inexpensive, or developing an overreliance on natural gas). Activities undertaken in the third part of the proposed work will identify such potential problems and explore strategies to minimize the chances of getting stuck in future situations that block continued progress. Analysis of technical and regulatory issues associated with facilitating a more efficient and cost-effective transformation of the energy system will build upon a range of tools in engineering-economic and policy assessment. This collaborative group project is supported by the NSF Directorate for Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences through its Decision Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) funding opportunity.