The Divergent Effects of Conflict on Ethnic Voting

该项目询问，是什么决定了冲突中突出的族裔分裂是否继续成为冲突后选举中政治动员的来源。PIs确定了一个经验谜题，表明即使是受冲突严重影响的族裔群体也可能选择通过国家政党而不是族裔政党进行代表权。这个谜题的关键在于不同的冲突经历孕育了不同的叛军和平民关系。私人投资机构的理论是，种族战争期间的“集体背叛”(站在国家反叛乱而不是民族叛军一边)的经历可能会破坏民族政治运动被认为的合法性，从而阻碍冲突后选举中的种族动员。虽然政治学家将冲突后环境中的选举视为新一轮暴力的舞台，但人们对战时身份政治可能如何影响这些结果知之甚少。该项目通过提请注意反叛-平民关系如何影响冲突后选举政治，将族裔政治文学与冲突文学联系起来。和平倡议提出，团体内叛军领导人造成伤害的经历会影响受冲突影响群体进行族裔政治动员的可能性。在方法上，私人投资机构使用调查实验程序来评估在高度敏感的政治环境中“群体内背叛”因果机制的有效性。查明暴力冲突后跨族裔政治动员的来源对战后重建具有重要意义。与美国为战乱国家和平过渡所做的努力相一致，该项目有助于制定更好的和平建设战略。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project asks what determines whether salient ethnic divisions from conflict continue to be the source of political mobilization in post-conflict elections. The PIs identify an empirical puzzle that suggests that even an ethnic group heavily affected by conflict may choose representation through a national rather than an ethnic party. The key to the puzzle lies in the different experiences of conflict that bred different rebel-civilian relationships. The PIs theorize that the experience of 'in-group betrayal' (siding with state counterinsurgency rather than ethnic rebels) during ethnic war can undermine the perceived legitimacy of ethno-national political movement and thereby disincentivize ethnic mobilization in post-conflict elections. While political scientists have linked elections in post-conflict environments as arenas for renewed violence, little is known about how wartime identity politics might have influenced these outcomes. This project connects ethnic politics literature with conflict literature by drawing attention to how the rebel-civilian relationship affects post-conflict electoral politics. The PIs propose that experience of harm inflicted by in-group rebel leaders affect the likelihood of ethnic political mobilization among conflict-affected groups. Methodologically, the PIs use a survey experiment procedure to assess the validity of the causal mechanism of 'in-group betrayal' in a highly sensitive political environment. Identifying the source of cross-ethnic political mobilization after a violent conflict has important implications for post-war reconstruction. In line with the U.S. efforts for peaceful transition of war-torn states, this project contributes to making better peace-building strategies.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.