Transition to market economies and capital transfer in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe

在为期三年的研究中，笔者首先收集和查阅了转轨国家公布的资本流入统计资料和国际金融机构披露的资本流入统计资料。与外国专家的磋商也很有用。通过这项调查，结果表明，应该从外国直接投资的角度来审查匈牙利，从证券投资的角度来审查俄罗斯。因此，我的详细分析集中在这两个国家。我的发现已经发表在三篇论文中。此外，他们还对与保加利亚经济部的政府间技术合作项目提出了很多建议，以支持关键产业政策的形成(我是日方项目的负责人)。因为最终变得相当清楚的是，不仅有价证券投资，而且外国直接投资也有消极影响，也有积极影响。我可以通过对外国直接投资对匈牙利国际收支、对外贸易和经济结构的影响的分析指出，匈牙利经济已经出现了最严重的分裂或严重的二元经济，由外国资本参与的部门和匈牙利本土资本的部门组成。这一事实意味着，吸引外国直接投资从来不是向市场经济过渡的灵丹妙药，但从一个国家经济的独立性来看，谨慎选择地吸引外国直接投资是必不可少的。关于俄罗斯，我强调，她宽松的经济自由化政策对俄罗斯经济来说是极其危险的，因为俄罗斯经济一直在遭受所谓的“荷兰病”。

In this research project conducted for three years, firstly I collected and inspected statistical materials on capital inflow published in transitional countries and those revealed by the international financial institutions. And consultations with foreign experts were also useful. Through this investigation it turned out fruitful that Hungary should be examined in terms of FDI and Russia from the viewpoint of portfolio investment. Therefore my detailed analyzes were focused on the two countries. My findings were published in three papers already. And moreover they were full of suggestion for the intergovernmental project of technical cooperation with the Bulgarian Ministry of Economy to support formation of key industrial policies (I am the head of the project on the Japanese side). For eventually it has become quite clear that not only portfolio investments but also foreign direct investments contain negative effects as well as positive ones. I could point out through analyzes of FDI influences over balance of payments, foreign trade and economic structure in Hungary that a deepest split of her economy or a serious dual economy has emerged which consists of a sector with foreign capital participation and a sector of Hungarian indigenous capital. This fact means the invitation of FDI is never a panacea for transition to a market economy but that cautiously selective induction of FDI is indispensable from the viewpoint of independency of a national economy. As regards Russia I emphasized that her easy liberalization policy of the economy is extremely dangerous for the Russian economy which has been suffering from the so-called "Dutch disease".