Population Vulnerability and Resilience to Hurricanes on the Gulf Coast

描述（由申请人提供）：该项目通过将这些事件放在更广泛的历史和地理角度来应对卡特里娜飓风和丽塔飓风造成的数十万墨西哥湾沿岸居民的灾难性流离失所。对1950- 2000年期间所有记录到的风暴造成的损失的估计，以高分辨率显示遭受水灾或风灾的地区的边界，将与关于人口变化和经济活动的其他数据一起纳入地理信息系统框架。分析将评估风暴破坏对人类社区随后变化的影响，估计这种影响的持续时间，并按其位置评估哪些人口群体最有可能受到破坏。分析将纳入现有数据（并在必要时制定新的估计）从县商业模式县的经济活动（自1970年以来以年度时间序列提供）和经济分析局（自1969年以来），按种族、年龄和性别分列的各县人口净迁移情况（自1970年以来的年度时间序列，以及1950-2000年的数十年时间序列）和各县人口的教育、年龄、种族和性别（将对1990-2000十年期进行估计）以及普查区人口的规模和组成（从1950年开始提供城市化地区的数据，1990年和2000年提供所有地区的数据）。这些分析的一个特点是对空间影响进行估计，确定人口或经济活动是否倾向于迁移到邻近的县，或者跨多个县的破坏是否会加剧其影响。 公共卫生相关性：该项目通过将这些事件置于更广泛的历史和地理角度来应对卡特里娜飓风和丽塔飓风造成的数十万墨西哥湾沿岸居民的灾难性流离失所。该项目将提供关于风暴对经济活动和人类住区的短期和长期后果的新资料，这些资料对于制定促进可持续社区的公共政策至关重要。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This project responds to the disastrous displacement of hundreds of thousands of Gulf Coast residents by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita by placing these events in a broader historical and geographic perspective. Estimates of damage from all recorded storms in the period 1950- 2000, showing at a high resolution the boundaries of areas that suffered flooding or wind damage, will be brought together in a Geographic Information System framework with other data on population change and economic activity. Analyses will assess the impact of storm damage on subsequent changes in human communities, estimate the duration of such impacts, and evaluate which population groups are, by their location, most at risk of damage. Analyses will incorporate existing data (and where necessary develop new estimates) on economic activity in counties from County Business Patterns (available as an annual time series since 1970) and Bureau of Economic Analysis (since 1969), net migration of population of counties by race, age, and sex (available as an annual time series since 1970, and across decades for 1950-2000) and by education, age, race, and sex of the population of counties (to be estimated for the 1990-2000 decade), and the size and composition of the population of census tracts (available for urbanized areas beginning in 1950 and for all areas in 1990 and 2000). A special feature of these analyses will be the estimation of spatial effects, determining whether population or economic activity tends to be displaced to adjacent counties or whether damage extending across multiple counties accentuates its effects. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: This project responds to the disastrous displacement of hundreds of thousands of Gulf Coast residents by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita by placing these events in a broader historical and geographic perspective. The project will provide new information about the short-term and long- term consequences of storms on economic activity and human settlements, information that is essential to formulation of public policies to promote sustainable communities.