POWRE: Hurricane Risk Modeling and Forecasting

戴维森国际公司在地震风险分析方面有多年的经验。这项POWRE奖将使她能够扩大她的研究，将飓风风险分析也包括在内，目标是最终采用多种危险方法来进行风险评估和管理。这个项目将为PI提供完成这一过渡所需的技能、背景和关系。这项研究有两个主要目标。首先，PI将在一个新的研究领域-飓风风险分析-获得专业知识并建立关系，该领域的专家David Rosowsky博士、Lian Xie博士以及他们在克莱姆森大学土木工程系和北卡罗来纳州立大学海洋、地球和大气科学系的研究同事分别提供支持。作为这个项目的顾问，罗索斯基和谢将分别接待PI和她的研究助理进行为期两周的访问。其次，更具体地说，参与这项研究将使PI准备好与Rosowsky和Xie进行计划中的合作项目，以预测飓风风险随着时间的变化而变化。随着城市的发展、老化和演变，它们对自然灾害的暴露和脆弱性发生了巨大的变化。因此，风险评估员和管理人员总是落后于问题一步，除非他们预测世界将如何变化，估计下一次飓风发生时未来那个时候的风险，并为未来的情景做好计划。计划中的预报研究将开发飓风风险如何随时间变化的模型，以便风险管理人员能够更有效地进行规划。这两个目标将通过实现POWRE项目的具体目标来实现。首先，PI将与顾问合作，深入了解Rosowsky开发的飓风风灾模型和Xie开发的沿海洪水风险模型。其次，PI将开发脆弱性模型，预测飓风和沿海洪水造成的损失。第三，将开发Clemson风模型、NCSU海岸洪水模型和脆弱性模型之间的接口，以便它们共同形成一个原型风险评估系统。最后，将危险和易损性模型应用于北卡罗来纳州海岸，以测试接口并演示原型风险评估系统的可行性。

0074686DavidsonThe PI has several years experience in earthquake risk analysis. This POWRE award will allow her to expand her research to include hurricane risk analysis as well, with the goal of ultimately adopting a multihazard approach to risk assessment and management. This project will give the PI the skills, background, and connections necessary to make this transition. The study has two main goals. First, the PI will gain expertise and forge relationships in a new research area, hurricane risk analysis, with the support of experts in the field, Dr. David Rosowsky, Dr. Lian Xie, and their research colleagues at the Clemson University Civil Engineering Department and the North Carolina State University Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences Department, respectively. As consultants on this project, Rosowsky and Xie each will host the PI and her research assistant for a two-week visit. Second, more specifically, participation in this study will prepare the PI to conduct a planned collaborative project with Rosowsky and Xie to forecast hurricane risk as it changes over time. As cities grow, age, and evolve, their exposure and vulnerability to natural hazards changes dramatically. Risk assessors and managers, therefore, will always be a step behind the problem unless they anticipate how the world will change, estimate what the risk will be at that time in the future when the next hurricane occurs, and plan for that future scenario. The planned forecasting study will develop a model of how hurricane risk changes over time so that risk managers can plan more effectively.These two goals will be achieved through the accomplishment of the specific objectives of the POWRE project. First, the PI will work with the consultants to develop a deep understanding of the hurricane wind hazard model Rosowsky has developed and the coastal flooding hazard model Xie has developed. Second, the PI will develop vulnerability models that predict damage due to hurricane winds and coastal flooding. Third, interfaces between the Clemson wind model, NCSU coastal flooding model, and vulnerability models will be developed so that together they form a prototype risk assessment system. Finally, the hazard and vulnerability models will be applied to the coast of North Carolina to test the interfaces and demonstrate the feasibility of the prototype risk assessment system.***