LEAP-HI: Embedding Regional Hurricane Risk Management in the Life of a Community: A Computational Framework

这一领先的美国繁荣、健康和基础设施工程奖(LEAP-HI)的努力为评估飓风对居民社区的风险和管理这些社区的公共政策提供了一个科学框架。尽管有丰富的跨学科知识和许多旨在将其影响降至最低的干预措施，美国的灾害损失仍在继续增加。要想在减少灾害风险方面取得突破，就必须采取一种办法，不把灾害视为异常事件，而是将其视为社区发展的常规部分，并认识到灾害风险管理与日常生活的正常活动密不可分。一个新的计算建模框架将实施这一方法，以了解不断升级的区域自然灾害风险，并支持设计应对这些风险的公共政策干预措施。全系统分析框架将考虑多个关键利益攸关方(政府、主要保险公司和房主)、多种干预措施(房屋加固、保险、土地利用规划)以及影响风险的次要因素的视角和相互作用。该框架将直接支持国家自然灾害风险的管理，并通过提高生活质量和经济竞争力承诺长期的社会效益。与房屋建筑业和保险业代表以及相关政府机构的合作将有助于确保实效和广泛传播。威廉·A·安德森基金会研究生研究员的暑期实习将有助于扩大对灾害研究和实践的参与，这些研究生都来自代表性不足的群体。多利益攸关方灾害风险管理(MDRM)计算框架将包括七个相互作用的数学模型，代表损害、损失和加固房屋的方法的实物模拟；每个主要利益攸关方类型(政府、主要保险公司和房主)的决策，包括保险公司之间的寡头垄断竞争；以及提供背景的不断变化的建筑库存和区域经济。它将建立在调查人员开发的现有框架的基础上，通过整合六项任务来扩展该框架：(1)确定广泛的政府干预措施，包括注重风险和影响风险的行动；(2)开发一个新的基于经验的房主决策模型，考虑房主发起注重风险和影响风险的决策的过程；(3)开发保险市场的动态模型；(4)开发动态建筑库存模型；(5)开发与建筑库存相互作用的动态区域经济模型；以及(6)对北卡罗来纳州的飓风进行全面的案例研究。该项目承诺通过首次将灾害的概念化作为社区正常生活的一部分，与对风险、决策和经济进行定量、动态的工程建模的能力相结合，从而提高对区域自然灾害风险产生和管理的理解。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The effort in this Leading Engineering for America's Prosperity, Health, and Infrastructure (LEAP-HI) award provides a scientific framework for evaluating the risks of hurricanes to residential communities and public policies to manage them. Disaster losses in the United States continue to grow despite a wealth of interdisciplinary knowledge and many interventions intended to minimize their effects. A breakthrough in disaster risk reduction requires an approach that views disasters not as abnormal events, but as a regular part of a community's evolution and that recognizes that disaster risk management is inextricably interwoven with the normal activities of everyday life. A novel computational modeling framework will implement this approach to understand escalating regional natural disaster risks and support the design of public policy interventions to address them. The system-wide analysis framework will consider the perspectives of and interactions among multiple key stakeholders (government, primary insurers, and homeowners), multiple interventions (home strengthening, insurance, land use planning), and secondary factors that affect risk. The framework will directly support management of the country's natural disaster risk and promise long-term societal benefits through improved quality of life and economic competitiveness. Collaboration with representatives of the home building and insurance industries and relevant government agencies will help ensure practical results and wide dissemination. Summer internships for William A. Anderson Fund Graduate Student Fellows, all scholars from underrepresented groups, will help broaden participation in disaster research and practice. The Multistakeholder Disaster Risk Management (MDRM) computational framework will include seven interacting mathematical models representing physically-based simulations of damage, losses, and ways to strengthen homes; decision-making by each main stakeholder type (government, primary insurers, and homeowners) including oligopolistic competition among insurers; and the changing building inventory and regional economy that provide the context. It will build on an existing framework that the investigators have developed, expanding it through the integration of six tasks: (1) Identify a broad range of government interventions, including both risk-focused and risk-influential actions; (2) Develop a new empirically-based homeowner decision model that considers the process by which homeowners initiate risk-focused and risk-influential decisions; (3) Develop a dynamic model of the insurance market; (4) Develop a dynamic building inventory model; (5) Develop a dynamic regional economic model that interacts with the building inventory; and (6) Conduct a full-scale case study for hurricanes in North Carolina. This project promises improved understanding of the creation and management of regional natural disaster risk by, for the first time, uniting the conceptualization of disasters as part of the normal life of a community with the power of quantitative, dynamic engineering modeling of risk, decision-making, and economics.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.