Large-scale CoPe: Coastal Hazards, Equity, Economic prosperity, and Resilience (CHEER)

在实践中实现社区复原力仍然具有挑战性，部分原因是公平和经济繁荣的目标是平行的，有时是相互竞争的，特别是在气候变化的背景下。为了应对这一挑战，中心的研究目标是：(1)确定、解释和量化沿海社区公平、经济繁荣和抗灾能力目标之间的相互作用和权衡；(2)开发方法来模拟造成气候变化的长期飓风灾害，并将多种灾害--风、雨、风暴潮、海浪--结合在一起；以及(3)开发一个计算框架，以设计和评估能够在气候变化背景下实现可持续公平、经济繁荣和沿海抗灾能力的政策干预措施。新的动态和空间计算框架将由七个交互模块组成，描述三种利益相关者类型的交互决策--(1)家庭、(2)保险公司和(3)三级政府；以及做出这些决策的自然、建筑和经济环境--(4)危害、(5)损坏/损失、(6)建筑物和(7)经济。框架结果将包括：(A)考虑到保险公司和家庭可能如何应对而设计的建议政府政策；(B)每种利益攸关方类型的结果，包括它们内部的不确定性和异质性；以及(C)基于这些特定利益攸关方的结果，评估社区公平、经济繁荣和随着时间的推移的复原力。Hub的研究将集中在三个案例研究地区--北卡罗来纳州东部、德克萨斯州亚瑟港和德克萨斯州休斯顿。计算框架将作为决策支持工具的基础，它将通过解决与公平、经济繁荣和气候变化相互作用造成的障碍，并利用它们带来的机会，推动沿海复原力的实施。与从业者和社区伙伴的密切合作将确保决策工具对从业者有用，并促进社区的利益。正如区域损失建模框架提供了几十年来指导研究的结构一样，中心的框架可以促进未来的跨学科研究，使损失建模具有动态化，并包括嵌入相关社会和经济背景的丰富决策表示。更具体的学科进展包括了解风、雨、内陆和沿海洪水灾害如何动态相互作用，包括未来气候情景下的潜在影响；开发一种自动化、可扩展的方法，以创建高分辨率、详细的住宅建筑清单；提高对飓风对区域经济演变影响的理解；模拟各级政府之间的相互作用；将多种公平概念及其影响付诸实施；以及扩大对租户和流动房屋居民风险和风险管理经验的理解。该中心将实施一项全面的、以研究为基础的指导计划，包括快速反应实地调查培训，并将通过与麦克奈尔学者计划和比尔·安德森基金的合作伙伴关系，扩大学生的参与，这两个全国性组织支持来自代表性不足群体的研究生。该中心将通过开发学科入门读物和DRC IT！培训单元；案例研究社区内的讲习班；以及HurriCon II会议。与SimCenter、DesignSafe-CI和灾害研究中心的合作伙伴关系将有助于确保可持续发展。该项目由海岸线与人(COPE)计划和既定的激励竞争研究计划(EPSCoR)共同资助。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Community resilience remains challenging to achieve in practice in part due to constraints imposed by the parallel, and sometimes competing, objectives of equity and economic prosperity, particularly in the context of climate change. To address this challenge, the Hub research goals are to: (1) Identify, explain, and quantify interactions and tradeoffs among the coastal community goals of equity, economic prosperity, and resilience to hazards; (2) Develop methods to model long-term hurricane hazards that account for climate change and integrate multiple hazards—wind, rain, storm surge, waves; and (3) Develop a computational framework to design and evaluate policy interventions that can achieve sustainable equity, economic prosperity, and coastal resilience in the context of climate change. The new dynamic and spatial computational framework will consist of seven interacting modules describing the interactive decision-making of three stakeholder types--(1) households, (2) insurers, and (3) three levels of government; and the natural, built, and economic environments in which those decisions are made—(4) hazards, (5) damage/loss, (6) buildings, and (7) economy. The framework results will include: (a) recommended government policies designed with an awareness of how insurers and households are likely to respond; (b) outcomes for each stakeholder type including uncertainty and heterogeneity within them; and (c) based on those stakeholder-specific outcomes, assessments of community equity, economic prosperity, and resilience over time. Hub research will focus on three case study areas—Eastern North Carolina; Port Arthur, TX; and Houston, TX. The computational framework will serve as the basis of a decision support tool, which will propel implementation of coastal resilience forward by addressing impediments that interactions with equity, economic prosperity, and climate change create, and capitalizing on the opportunities they present. Close collaboration with practitioner and community partners will ensure the decision tool is useful to practitioners and advances the interests of communities. Just as the regional loss modeling framework provided a structure that has guided research for decades, the Hub’s framework can facilitate future interdisciplinary research that makes loss modeling dynamic and includes a rich representation of decision-making embedded in the relevant social and economic context. More specific disciplinary advances include understanding how wind, rain, inland and coastal flooding hazards dynamically interact, including potential impacts under future climate scenarios; developing an automated, scalable method for creating a high resolution, detailed inventory of residential buildings; enhancing understanding of hurricanes’ effects on regional economies’ evolution; modeling interactions among levels of government; operationalizing multiple concepts of equity and their implications; and expanding understanding of renters’ and mobile home residents’ experiences with risk and risk management. The Hub will implement a comprehensive, research-based mentoring program, including quick response fieldwork training, and will broaden participation of students through partnerships with the McNair Scholars Program and Bill Anderson Fund, national organizations supporting graduate students from underrepresented groups. The Hub will engage other researchers and the public through development of discipline primers and DRC IT! modules; workshops within the case study communities; and the HurriCon II conference. Partnerships with SimCenter, DesignSafe-CI, and the Disaster Research Center will help ensure sustainability.This project is jointly funded by the Coastlines & People (CoPe) program and the Established Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR).This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.