Risk-Based Methodological Framework for Scenario Tracking and Intelligence Collection and Analysis for Terrorism

要想挫败恐怖袭击，就必须掌握有助于查明和确定参与支持、策划和实施袭击者的信息。 这类信息来自各种来源，如情报或执法机构的人力或仪器监视、各种数据库和有关交易的文件，以及各种偶然观察者的提示。鉴于可用的信息量巨大，需要一种方法来挑选和分析与任务相关的数据，确认其有效性并消除其余数据。这一方法必须有助于将分别获得的关于潜在攻击者、目标和攻击方法的信息联系起来，以帮助分析小组发现准备中的未知攻击，这一建议的大前提是，在策划、支持和实施恐怖主义阴谋时，参与者将进行一系列相关活动，这些活动可能有一些可观察到的证据和其他可获得的证据。这些活动合在一起构成了一种威胁情景。与现实威胁情景一致的信息可能有助于挫败即将发生的攻击。因此，该方法需要一套全面的现实威胁情景，以此作为收集和分析信息的框架。 它还需要一个程序来判断这种信息的有效性和有用性。拟议研究的关键问题是：如何产生一套全面的威胁情景;如何将其筛选为最有可能的情景;哪些补充情报值得追求;如何判断可用信息的相关性;以及如何验证和分析信息。研究的一个关键要素是层次全息建模（HHM）的应用。 HHM是一种为支持风险分析而开发的方法。它为分析师团队提供了一种从多个角度评估风险情况的方法。在这项研究工作中，HHM被用来识别目标属性，这些属性可以指导攻击方法的选择和目标相关人员（例如，目标位置的员工），这可能有助于攻击。这些信息可用于开始建立方法、人员和目标之间的其他攻击相关联系。如果这些与攻击有关的联系是不寻常的，它们可以提供一个良好的基础，促进更集中的努力来拦截潜在的攻击。HHM需要对目标漏洞进行多维评估，为攻击者提供成功的机会。该项目的结果应提供关于如何在规划阶段预测和更容易发现恐怖袭击的有用见解。此外，研究还将探讨如何将研究结果落实到现有的反恐信息系统工作中。

Disruption of a terrorist attack depends on having information facilitating the identification and location of those involved in supporting, planning, and carrying out the attack. Such information arises from myriad sources such as human or instrument surveillance by intelligence or law enforcement agencies, a variety of databases and documents concerning transactions, and tips from a wide range of occasional observers. Given the enormous amount of information available, a method is needed to cull and analyze only the data relevant to the task, confirm its validity and eliminate the rest. This method must help to link separately obtained information about potential attackers, targets and methods of attack in a fashion that helps an analyst team to discover an otherwise unknown attack in preparation.This proposal has the major premise that in planning, supporting, and carrying out a terrorist plot, those involved will conduct a series of related activities for which there may be some observables and other acquirable evidence. Those activities taken together constitute a threat scenario. Information consistent with a realistic threat scenario may be useful in thwarting an impending attack. Thus, the methodology requires a comprehensive set of realistic threat scenarios that would form a framework for collection and analysis of information. It also requires a process for judging the validity and usefulness of such information. The key questions for the proposed research are: how to produce a comprehensive set of threat scenarios; how to winnow that to the set of most likely scenarios; what supplementary intelligence is worth pursuing; how to judge the relevance of available information; and how to validate and analyze the information. A key element in the research is the application of Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM). HHM is a methodology developed to support risk analysis. It provides a means for a team of analysts to evaluate a risky situation from a multitude of perspectives. In this research effort, HHM is used to identify target attributes that can guide the selection of a method of attack and target related people (e.g., employees at the targeted location) that can possibly contribute to an attack. This information can be used to start establishing other attack related linkages between methods, people and targets. If these attack related linkages are unusual, they can provide a sound basis for stimulating more concentrated efforts to intercept the potential attack. HHM requires a multi-dimensional evaluation of target vulnerabilities that provide attackers with the opportunity to be successful. The results of this project should provide useful insights about how to anticipate and more readily discover terrorist attacks in the planning phase. In addition the research will explore approaches for implementing its results into existing information system efforts related to countering terrorism.