Storm Preparedness and Recovery for the Electric Power System

该项目旨在通过建立一套相互关联的数学模型，更好地估计未来与风暴有关的损失，并支持能够将与风暴有关的干扰降至最低的决策，特别是树木修剪政策和风暴后恢复程序的设计，从而改善配电系统对冰暴和飓风的准备和恢复。该项目将包括四个主要步骤。首先，将开发冰暴和飓风风险模型，并应用于预测冰暴和飓风分别对系统施加的冰和风荷载。其次，将开发统计损害模型，根据风暴、系统清单和区域的特征来预测冰暴和飓风的损害。第三，将开发风暴后恢复过程的离散事件模拟模型。最后，将进行两个案例研究，以调查各种替代树木修剪政策的成本效益，这是维护配电系统的一个昂贵而重要的方面，并检查替代风暴后恢复程序的相对有效性。调查人员将与4家大型电力公司(Dominion Energy、Duke Energy、New York State Electric&Amp；Gas和Progress Energy)合作进行这项研究。这些公司将提供有关系统运行的数据和咨询，它们最近共同经历了相当多的冰暴和飓风，就收集和利用更好的停机、损坏和其他数据的愿望和能力而言，它们正处于一个转折点。由于任何一家公司对风暴的经验都有限，因此汇集这4家公司的数据和专业知识为调查人员提供了一个独特的机会，可以深入了解配电系统对风暴的反应。这项研究将透过更妥善的准备和恢复，协助公用事业公司减少停电次数和停电时间，从而惠及所有电力用户。停电的负面社会影响包括经济损失、业务中断、普遍不便、电子数据和易腐烂物品的不可逆转损失、健康影响(例如，如果停电导致供暖中断)、供水、交通信号和其他基础设施系统的二次中断。随着社会对不间断电力的依赖和期望的增加，减少这些影响变得越来越关键。通过更好地了解风暴对电力系统的影响，以及通过更有效的停电预测、树木修剪和恢复来管理这些影响的能力，这项研究将对这一有价值的目标做出重大贡献。拟议的方法还将推动基础设施系统自然灾害风险分析的最先进水平。之前大多数生命线风险分析的研究都集中在地震上，留下了许多悬而未决的问题，即应对重大冰暴和飓风并从中恢复的最有效方式。在这项研究中总结的经验教训和制定的方法可能会在未来推广到其他生命线。

This project aims to improve ice storm and hurricane preparedness and recovery for electric power distribution systems by building a set of interrelated mathematical models to better estimate future storm-related damages, and to support decisions that can minimize storm-related disruption, specifically the design of tree trimming policies and post-storm restoration procedures. The project will consist of four main steps. First, ice storm and hurricane hazard models will be developed and applied to predict the ice and wind loads placed on the system by ice storms and hurricanes, respectively. Second, statistical damage models will be developed to predict damage for ice storms and hurricanes in terms of characteristics of the storms, system inventory, and region. Third, a discrete event simulation model of the post-storm restoration process will be developed. Finally, two case studies will be conducted to investigate the cost-effectiveness of various alternative tree trimming policies, a costly and important aspect of maintaining the electric power distribution system, and to examine the relative effectiveness of alternative post-storm restoration procedures.The investigators will collaborate with 4 large power companies on this research (Dominion Energy, Duke Energy, New York State Electric & Gas, and Progress Energy). The companies, which will provide data and consultation about system operations, collectively have had considerable recent experience with ice storms and hurricanes, and are at a turning point in terms of their desire and ability to collect and make use of better outage, damage, and other data. Because any one company has limited experience with storms, pooling the data and expertise of these 4 companies offers a unique opportunity for the investigators to gain insights into the response of the electric power distribution system to storms. The collaboration will also facilitate dissemination of results.This study will benefit all users of electric power by helping utility companies reduce the frequency and duration of power outages through better preparedness and recovery. Negative societal impacts of power outages include economic loss; business interruption; general inconvenience; irreversible loss of electronic data and perishable goods; health impacts (e.g., if power outages result in loss of heating); secondary interruptions of water supply, traffic signaling, and other infrastructure systems. As society's dependence on and expectation of uninterrupted electric power increases, it becomes more and more critical to reduce these effects. Through an improved understanding of storm impacts on power systems, and an improved ability to manage them with more efficient outage prediction, tree trimming, and restoration, this study will contribute significantly to that worthwhile goal. The proposed methodology will also advance the state-of-the-art in natural hazard risk analysis for infrastructure systems. Most previous research on lifeline risk analysis has focused on earthquakes, leaving many unanswered questions about the most effective way to prepare for and recover from major ice storms and hurricanes. Lessons learned and methods developed in this study may be extendable to other lifelines in the future.