Development of a quantitative impact model for calculating the schedule reliability of industrial manufacturing processes

物流性能，特别是生产系统的进度可靠性仍然是工业企业的主要竞争因素。尽管进度可靠性具有重要意义，但许多企业仍然面临着实现其目标进度可靠性的问题。其原因在于物流系统中影响进度可靠性的因素众多，相互依赖关系复杂，用模型描述物流关系为物流系统的设计提供了一种简单实用的方法。系统地分析了影响进度可靠性的因素，并用定量的数学方程描述了它们对进度可靠性的影响。应用该模型，可以找到提高进度可靠性的最有效措施。此外，它是可能的措施实施前估计的进度可靠性的措施的效果。因此，提交的研究项目的目标是开发一个定量的影响模型，描述一个单一的生产系统的制造订单的延迟。该模型计算的经验分布的加工制造订单的延迟。模型的输入是例如排序规则、在制品或积压。结合多个模型将允许描述任何物流网络中迟到的演变。

The logistic performance and in particular the schedule reliability of a production system is still a major competitive factor for industrial enterprises. Despite of the vital significance, many companies still face problems achieving their target schedule reliability. The reason lies within the numerous factors influencing the schedule reliability as well as the complex interdependencies in logistic systems.Describing logistic relationships by the use of models provides a simple and practical way for designing a logistic system. Factors influencing the schedule reliability are systematically structured and their impact on schedule reliability is described in terms of quantitative, mathematical equations. By applying this model, it is possible to find the most effective measure for increasing the schedule reliability. Furthermore, it is possible the estimate the effect of the measure on the schedule reliability before implementing the measure.Therefore, the target of the submitted research project is to develop a quantitative impact model describing the lateness of manufacturing orders of a single production system. The model calculates the empirical distribution of the lateness of the processed manufacturing orders. The input for the model is e.g. the sequencing rule, the work in process, or the backlog. Combining multiple models will allow describing the evolution of lateness in any logistic network.